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Q I've been thinking about: If the US- #Taliban agreement says (supposedly in the secret annexes) that the TB can't attack major cities or roads; & if that agreement is a foundational doc for intra-Afghan negotiations (as supposedly agreed to by both sides prior to the break) 1/n
Then does that constraint still apply even if/when the US draws down the remainder of its troops? If so, it could have significant implications for the future trajectory of security in #Afghanistan. 2/n
Granted, the #Taliban have likely still conducted such attacks & not claimed them, and granted that the constraint requires an enforcement mechanism (which current exists in the form of US troops/airpower). 3/n
But if the constraint would still apply even after US withdrawal, the US/int'l community could conceivably try to tie carrots/sticks to the maintenance of it, as a means of stemming potential #Taliban massed assaults on provincial capitals and the like. 4/n
I'd welcome any thoughts on this--it's not a fully formed idea in my head yet, so insights/alternatives/rebuttals are most welcome. 5/5
