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One of the things that I think is rather fascinating is the early declare aspect of WR evaluations.
As you know, Devonta Smith had the opportunity to declare last year but presumably the NFL said no thanks.
Let's dive in.
As you know, Devonta Smith had the opportunity to declare last year but presumably the NFL said no thanks.
Let's dive in.
This is the overall hit rate, not accounting for draft capital. This is just everyone that has been drafted from rounds 1-7.
Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%
Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%
So lets start cutting it down.
Here are the early declares with no control for draft capital.
Top 12 - 32/110 = 29%
Top 24 - 45/110 = 41%
Here are the early declares with no control for draft capital.
Top 12 - 32/110 = 29%
Top 24 - 45/110 = 41%
Here are the non-early declares
Top 12 - 22/251 = 9%
Top 24 - 36/251 = 14%
The contrast here is striking.
But we need to control for draft capital. Players generally dont declare early if they arent going to be drafted highly....
Top 12 - 22/251 = 9%
Top 24 - 36/251 = 14%
The contrast here is striking.
But we need to control for draft capital. Players generally dont declare early if they arent going to be drafted highly....
Here is our control for draft capital.
Round 7
Early Declare
Top 12 - 0/4 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/4 = 0%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 3/39 = 8%
Top 24 - 4/39 = 10%
Round 7
Early Declare
Top 12 - 0/4 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/4 = 0%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 3/39 = 8%
Top 24 - 4/39 = 10%
Round 6
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/4 = 25%
Top 24 - 1/4 = 25%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 0/29 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/29 = 0%
Not that it matters, but the early declare that hit used to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers, you've probably heard of him.
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/4 = 25%
Top 24 - 1/4 = 25%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 0/29 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/29 = 0%
Not that it matters, but the early declare that hit used to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers, you've probably heard of him.
Round 5
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/5 = 20%
Top 24 - 1/5 = 20%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 2/34 = 6%
Top 24 - 2/34 = 6%
Not that it matters but the early declare that hit just turned Josh Allen into a competent passer.
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/5 = 20%
Top 24 - 1/5 = 20%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 2/34 = 6%
Top 24 - 2/34 = 6%
Not that it matters but the early declare that hit just turned Josh Allen into a competent passer.
Round 4
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/13 = 8%
Top 24 - 3/13 = 23%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/46 = 2%
Top 24 - 4/46 = 9%
Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/13 = 8%
Top 24 - 3/13 = 23%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 1/46 = 2%
Top 24 - 4/46 = 9%
Round 3
Early Declare
Top 12 - 2/15 = 13%
Top 24 - 3/15 = 20%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 7/52 = 13%
Top 24 - 12/52 = 23%
Early Declare
Top 12 - 2/15 = 13%
Top 24 - 3/15 = 20%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 7/52 = 13%
Top 24 - 12/52 = 23%
Round 2
Early Declare
Top 12 - 11/31 = 35%
Top 24 - 15/31 = 48%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 5/30 = 17%
Top 24 - 7/30 = 23%
Early Declare
Top 12 - 11/31 = 35%
Top 24 - 15/31 = 48%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 5/30 = 17%
Top 24 - 7/30 = 23%
Round 1
Early Declare
Top 12 - 16/38 = 42%
Top 24 - 22/38 = 58%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 4/21 = 19%
Top 24 - 7/21 = 33%
Early Declare
Top 12 - 16/38 = 42%
Top 24 - 22/38 = 58%
Non-Early Declare
Top 12 - 4/21 = 19%
Top 24 - 7/21 = 33%
My assumption for why the first and second rounders take such a nose dive comparatively when they are seniors is because of we aren't comparing apples to apples.
If player x deserved to be drafted in the first round as a junior he probably would have just declared as a junior.
If player x deserved to be drafted in the first round as a junior he probably would have just declared as a junior.
If he went back to school and dominated as the oldest kid in class, it artificially pumps up his draft stock because we are no longer comparing him to his peers. His peers are in the NFL.
If you NEED some recency bias in your lyfe, let me show you this one.
Here are the seniors from the 2020 class.
Here are the seniors from the 2020 class.
Here are the early declares.
Which group do you want to select from?
Guess which pool your boi Devonta Smith falls into?
Guess which pool your boi Devonta Smith falls into?
