Read on Twitter
THREAD: What is the US intention from recent deployments in the Persian Gulf?
Existing force structure matches with no strike scenario to Iran. @CENTCOM is right when said deterring Iran’s attacks (in Iraq probably) is its main motive to deploy more forces in the Persian Gulf /1
Existing force structure matches with no strike scenario to Iran. @CENTCOM is right when said deterring Iran’s attacks (in Iraq probably) is its main motive to deploy more forces in the Persian Gulf /1
Pentagon needs a way larger number & diverse assets to conduct an operation in Iran. The combination of 2 B-52, 1 USS Georgia nuclear sub with all other assets in the region will not give enough fire power to conduct a surgical strike, resist counterstrike, & maintain tempo /2
For example, a USS Georgia nuclear sub is vulnerable in shallow waters of the Persian Gulf and is large enough to be detected and neutralise by existing Iranian assets. @FarzinNadimi explains this well /3 https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/submarine-movements-irans-doorstep-military-and-legal-implications
In a real war scenario, large strategic assets i.e. the USS Georgia can enter to the region just after Iran’s multi-layered A2/AD assets have already been suppressed. Only such an operation needs months of preparation and at minimum several weeks to conduct. See @ProfTalmadge /4
Similarly, no major wartime reinforcements on missile defense have been reported in the region. Meaning the US sees no imminent threat of massive Iranian missile strike. Recently deployed C-RAM air defence in Iraq provides no reliable protection against missile strikes /5
The C-RAM deployment is more a part of routine improvements in protecting US forces against Shit proxies’ mortars & rockets. It does not match with the level of US missile defence deployments seen in the Persian Gulf region in 2019 /6 https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-military/2019/10/11/f-15s-air-defense-systems-and-thousands-of-us-troops-heading-to-saudi-arabia/
Also, no large-scale logistical movements including inside the US & among its global commands have been reported. Agile deployments are different than large logistical preparations for the strike. In lack of such signals, no imminent war with Iran is planned /7
There are few reasons to believe Tehran seeks escalation. @HassanRouhani wish a talk with @JoeBiden while @khamenei_ir & his aids have made clear that they don’t want war with the US. The least favourite outcome for Tehran is a war with the US at this moment. See @KianSharifi /8
Thus, the IRGC too will be banned by provoking a war scenario with the US. The anniversary preparations should be seen as a regular propaganda serving internal politics and part of the Islamic Republic idealogical mobilisation practices /9
Trump too seems consistent with policy of not making a war with Iran, despite his administration’s risky reactionary decisions. The reaction to Iran’s preparation of #Soleimani anniversary by ‘show of US agile response capability’ has only added to chances of misperceptions /10
A positive aspect is that both sides militaries know each other’s course of actions (CoA). The US & Iran have been facing similar situations as early as 2000s & safely managed them. Their military intelligence distinguish between ‘war preparations' & ‘show of force’ operation /11
