Okay. New thread just to explain this.

Buckle the fuck up https://twitter.com/amai_zeg/status/1345295747529531392
Ignoring trend analysis, there are 3 non-theories which govern the narrative of S2F
1) Misapplication of Metcalfe's Law
2) Stephen Reed's invention of the "adoption S-Curve"
3) A bizarre statistical model generated from blockchain data with loose correlation

Let's break em down.
#1 and #3 have similar flaws, in that they are derived by arbitrary value assignments to blockchain data.

Metcalfe's law model is basically just a scatter plot of price action as a function of the number of addresses in use.

#3 is a refined statistical model of #1.
Models #1 and #3 are headed in the proper direction, but the actual model is infinitely more complex than the sophomoric models Bitcoin fan's created.

@cal_abel is a fucking genius.

Here's how it actually works. You can test it for yourself. https://statisticaleconomics.org/author/crabel2013/
Cal Abel

https://statisticaleconomics.org/author/crabel2013/
This leaves the prolific and profoundly influential works of one Mr. Stephen Reed.

However... I'll provide some inside baseball which puts it in a perspective ignored by maximalists because it's ... inconvenient.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0
Reed was inspired by an "intentionally" public conversation between Hal and I on the original mailing list.

We staged AMAs so that we could highlight certain topics.

We thought we were very clever.
https://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg10152.html
The thought process for how to value Bitcoin for the world in which it was launched and the code for an ever decreasing emission supply were... taken out of context by the faith militant.

They read too much into it.

All we sought to do was establish value existed.
People venerate everything we posted and print them into leather bound volumes like they were Gideon bibles.

There's no correcting the trajectory of wild flights of fancy... and we really didn't want to back in those days.

It was useful.
You can follow @BryceWeiner.
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