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Unfortunately, Greg Maddux is probably wrong.
Here's one way to look at it... https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1344309207810658304
Here's one way to look at it... https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1344309207810658304
After 1-0 counts, Greg Maddux is 4th among 200 pitchers, in OPS allowed.
After 0-1 counts, he's 12th among 200 pitchers.
So, this level sets how good Maddux is.
So, this level sets how good Maddux is.
On 0-2 counts, he's 25th out of 200 pitchers. This is still great of course. But, he's much better (relatively speaking) in his approach at 1-0 and 0-1.
Strasburg on the other hand was first on 0-2, second on 0-1 and (had he qualified) 33rd on 1-0, out of 200 pitchers.
So, we can argue that Strasburg's approach works spendidly on 0-1 and 0-2, and not as well (for a pitcher of his talent) at 1-0.
So, we can argue that Strasburg's approach works spendidly on 0-1 and 0-2, and not as well (for a pitcher of his talent) at 1-0.
Probably the smartest approach of all the pitchers is Pedro and Kershaw. Pedro is first on 1-0, just ahead of Kershaw at 2nd. At 0-1, Kershaw is 1st, Pedro is 3rd. At 0-2, Kershaw is third and Pedro is 4th.
Naturally, we'd expect them to be on top, since they are overall
Naturally, we'd expect them to be on top, since they are overall
the lowest in OPS. But we wouldn't expect them to lead in each split as they do. As we saw with Maddux and Strasburg, we'd expect them to excel in a few splits and great but not elite in others. Pedro+Kershaw are elite in these 3 counts.
Source: @baseball_ref https://stathead.com/
Might as well keep going. After 1-1, Pedro+Kershaw are 1-2, and Maddux goes great here at #6. Had Stras qualified, he'd be 13th
After 1-2:
Kershaw, Stras, Pedro, Maddux all in the top 10.
Kershaw, Stras, Pedro, Maddux all in the top 10.
After 2-1 is where we see Pedro all alone in 1st place.
Maddux is 16th, Kershaw 27th. Had Stras qualified, he'd be 94th.
Maddux is 16th, Kershaw 27th. Had Stras qualified, he'd be 94th.
At 2-0:
Kershaw 4th, Maddux 7th, Pedro 11th, Stras (had he qualified) 40th.
Kershaw 4th, Maddux 7th, Pedro 11th, Stras (had he qualified) 40th.
On a full count is where Maddux leads the pack. Pedro 5th, Kershaw 13th. Stras (had he qualified) 33rd.
So, THAT is the count where his insights would be most beneficial.
So, THAT is the count where his insights would be most beneficial.
Addendum to those noting Maddux saved himself alot of pitches each game because of his approach on 0-2 counts.
In his 4 Cy Young years, he entered an 0-2 count 664 times in 124 starts. That's just over 5 times each game. He probably saved himself one pitch with his approach.
In his 4 Cy Young years, he entered an 0-2 count 664 times in 124 starts. That's just over 5 times each game. He probably saved himself one pitch with his approach.
