A new pre-print shows just how rapidly the variant COVID strain has become the predominant strain throughout the UK. It can go from minimal prevalence to predominant strain within 1-2 months. There's no reason it would behave differently in the US.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_31_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England_update_1.pdf
Again, one major trouble is that this strain is sufficiently transmissible that the type of "lockdown" we have executed in parts of the US would not be sufficient to drive R below 1. This means that case numbers, already perilously high, would undergo exponential increase.
We are fortunate that we have vaccines available as a tool, but we're barely utilizing them. I am the most alarmed I have been at any stage of the pandemic thus far. I strongly suspect that starting in March, the # of daily deaths will further accelerate.
I just don't think people understand how much worse things will get if we don't act now.
You can follow @LeiferMd.
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