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Weekly update on the COVID sitch in Liverpool:
- Cases going up, trending the same in over & under 60's groups
- (Inevitably) hospitalisations also now reported going up
- Christmas/New Year has only just happened so doesn't even show yet in this stuff yet
1/15
- Cases going up, trending the same in over & under 60's groups
- (Inevitably) hospitalisations also now reported going up
- Christmas/New Year has only just happened so doesn't even show yet in this stuff yet
1/15
Total cases continue to rise at around 40-50% increase on previous week.
Though the true picture of the trend won't reveal itself until holiday caveats are smoothed out with future data, the growth isn't far from start of 2nd wave, + Christmas/NYE not shown much here yet. 2/15
Though the true picture of the trend won't reveal itself until holiday caveats are smoothed out with future data, the growth isn't far from start of 2nd wave, + Christmas/NYE not shown much here yet. 2/15
Early 2nd wave rates in under 60's (driven by student pop) shot up before being followed by scary growth in the over 60's.
Now, both under & over 60's cases are trending up again, but this time growing at the same rates. 3/15
Now, both under & over 60's cases are trending up again, but this time growing at the same rates. 3/15
Royal hospital admissions have been constant at ≈ 10 a day until recently where, like case rates, have now doubled in < 2 weeks.
The number of patients in hospital isn't growing at rates of 2nd wave thankfully but it's just been Christmas so keeping and eye on this 4/15
The number of patients in hospital isn't growing at rates of 2nd wave thankfully but it's just been Christmas so keeping and eye on this 4/15
Liverpool suffered a very bad 2nd wave with a fifth more people dying than expected in a normal year, driven by COVID-19 deaths
The last reported week, ending 18th Dec, saw 16 deaths with 81% occurring in hospital. 5/15
The last reported week, ending 18th Dec, saw 16 deaths with 81% occurring in hospital. 5/15
@lpoolcouncil are on a Christmas break from reporting ward data so it's pretty much impossible to comment on lateral flow testing until this update @profbuchan
Over half of the Christmas cases where located in asymptomatic rapid testing centers 6/15 https://twitter.com/profbuchan/status/1344358355284979718?s=20
Over half of the Christmas cases where located in asymptomatic rapid testing centers 6/15 https://twitter.com/profbuchan/status/1344358355284979718?s=20
Infact, so many people wanted to know if they were LF +ve before returning for christmas that there were 38,441 LF tests performed from 18-24th Dec, with a peak of 8,846 on one day.
Unfortunately that was the day I went and had to wait an hour... 7/15
https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1341794879349940225?s=20
Unfortunately that was the day I went and had to wait an hour... 7/15
https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1341794879349940225?s=20
As far as symptomatic tests are involved. After a period of mass PCR testing in November, symptomatic testing is at Sep/Oct levels with positivity also trending similar to late September
This is very bad. Would be nice if we could jump off this asap 8/15
This is very bad. Would be nice if we could jump off this asap 8/15
Ward breakdown reporting was halted but assume will be back from Monday. The latest ward breakdown (below) ends on 20th Dec , but given how much cases have went up since then just imagine more red across the latter part of the board 9/15 https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1341717096787566592?s=20
There's a potentially more transmissible new varient about but thankfully Cheshire & Merseyside don't seem to be affected much by it yet.
But if variant is really signif transmissible & cases here are continuing to rise then we're just on borrowed time frankly.
10/15
But if variant is really signif transmissible & cases here are continuing to rise then we're just on borrowed time frankly.
10/15
In terms of mobility, at least from Apple routing data, Liverpool driving levels mirrored that of January 2020, as per Tier 2 decision. Public transport use also grew but remains relatively low.
11/15 https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1343199201212170241?s=20
11/15 https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1343199201212170241?s=20
Sources
Case/Hospital data:
GOV ( https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk )
Liverpool city council: https://liverpool.gov.uk/communities-and-safety/emergency-planning/coronavirus/cases-control-and-testing/cases-by-area/
Deaths data: https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases
13/15
Case/Hospital data:
GOV ( https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk )
Liverpool city council: https://liverpool.gov.uk/communities-and-safety/emergency-planning/coronavirus/cases-control-and-testing/cases-by-area/
Deaths data: https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases
13/15
Caveats:
- Hospital data released every Thursday (up to 24th Dec)
- Only for Royal Liverpool Hospital (other Liv hosps small numbers)
- Five year Avg deaths scaled from national proportion (ONS definition)
14/15
- Hospital data released every Thursday (up to 24th Dec)
- Only for Royal Liverpool Hospital (other Liv hosps small numbers)
- Five year Avg deaths scaled from national proportion (ONS definition)
14/15
Summary:
Growth now similar to early 2nd wave situation but this time the tier system is already established & asymptomatic testing is a go
More concerned about holiday mixing than new variant, especially as true trends aren't visible in the data yet & still look worrying 15/15
Growth now similar to early 2nd wave situation but this time the tier system is already established & asymptomatic testing is a go
More concerned about holiday mixing than new variant, especially as true trends aren't visible in the data yet & still look worrying 15/15
