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THREAD: Check out some interesting data on turnout in the Georgia runoff elections. With a large hat tip to my colleague @lennybronner for helping crunch some numbers on this New Year’s Day!
First, check out this list of turnout by congressional district, ranked from highest to lowest turnout. The denominator here is turnout at the same point in the November general:
Do you see what I see? The top four turnout rates are in Democratic-held congressional districts. The bottom four are in Republican districts.
One of those bottom four is the district where QAnon thinker Marjorie Taylor Greene recently won. That’s also the district where President Trump is headed on Monday for his final campaign rally of the cycle. And we should assume that’s not a coincidence.
It’s certainly possible that more republicans are wary of mail balloting now than in November, and plan to vote on Election Day. If that’s the case we should see higher turnout on Tuesday in those districts than on Nov 3.
But it’s also possible that more republicans are wary of Dominion voting machines, given how many Republicans — led by Trump — have trashed them. And where is suspicion of machines likely to be highest? In the district that just elected an avowed QAnon supporter.
If that suspicion is real, these voters are staying home on Tuesday too. And then it’s game over for Loeffler and Perdue. Unless Trump somehow persuades them otherwise on Monday.
It appears to me that Republicans know very well how close they are to losing on Tuesday, and how monumental a collapse of their party it would trigger. Trump, by launching an all out civil war within the Georgia GOP, is the person most responsible for that potential outcome.
And yet he is the man they are hoping will save them.
Eagle eyed twitter follower noticed an error in my list. This is why I don’t do data for a living. Here is updated list. Bottom FIVE turnout rates, not four, are in R districts. Also the party breakdown follows the next congress, not current.
