Predictions for autonomy in 2021—confidence in parentheses.

* Waymo will expand its Phoenix service area but will still serve less than half the Phoenix metro area by the end of 2021. (80%)

* Waymo will launch a commercial service in the SF Bay Area, (60%) no where else. (90%)

* None of Waymo's major US robotaxi competitors (Cruise, Argo, Zoox, etc.) will launch a driverless commercial service in 2021. (70%)

* Tesla's FSD will improve but won't be ready for hands-free ("level 3") use by the end of 2021, to say nothing of driverless operation. (90%)

* None of the companies working on driverless trucking will begin driverless operation in 2021. (90%)

* At least one of the startups building special-purpose, low-speed services (Nuro, Udelv, Voyage, Optimus Ride, May Mobility, etc.) will launch a driverless service. (80%)

More subjectively, I think we'll see a bunch of companies making rapid progress even if few are quite ready for commercial launch in 2021.

As in 2020, a lot of non-experts will continue declaring that driverless tech is still years away even though Waymo already has a driverless product in the market.

We'll also see growing (and somewhat justified) concern in the US that the Chinese are getting ahead of us on self-driving technology. The Chinese government might have a higher appetite for risk, allowing faster rollout of untested technology there.