Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3

This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948606/s0991-sage-meeting-74-covid-19.pdf

But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here /5 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/education-secretary-sets-out-school-contingency-plans-for-england

This thread by @dgurdasani1 unpicks the details...shows where things are headed. Tl;dr the point is that a more transmissible virus mutation is more dangerous than the virus becoming more lethal - but with same transmissibility. /6 https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1344774555718590464

There are signs of pressure telling...like this @guardian story saying that Gov will include London boroughs in group of primaries in south that wont open /7

Apols - link here - still to be confirmed, but perhaps a belwether? /8 https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/01/all-primary-schools-in-london-to-remain-closed-after-u-turn

In any event (and I write as a parent of a GCSE student who is v keen indeed that they should do their exams) what is clear is that the government is following this schools policy despite clear assertions from scientists that R will surge, given new variant infectiousness /9

At the same time - even before schools go back - the warning lights are starting to blink on the hospitals dashboard. Nightingales (for which it is not clear there are sufficient staff) are being talked about etc. /10

Just like with the Christmas changes, it seems hard - given where we are apparently headed - that the govt holds its line. And if does, for how long? And if numbers climb too high, well, the scientific warnings are there in black and white....tough weeks ahead. ENDS