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Let's start a new, better year with a new, better COVID strategy.
@csc_canada_
1/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Let's start a new, better year with a new, better COVID strategy.
@csc_canada_
1/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Canada presently has 2 COVID strategies: 1 is working; 1 is failing.
The 4 Atlantic Provinces & 3 territories have a successful near-zero COVID strategy.
Near-zero COVID strategies around the world demonstrate superior performance in resisting the COVID 2nd wave.
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The 4 Atlantic Provinces & 3 territories have a successful near-zero COVID strategy.
Near-zero COVID strategies around the world demonstrate superior performance in resisting the COVID 2nd wave.
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Atlantic Canada has the best COVID, economic & citizen satisfaction outcomes in Canada. It is the only Canadian region where cases remain well below the first wave peak.
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QC, ON, MB, SK, AB, BC & Federal govt follow a "COVID mitigation" strategy--trying to maintain COVID at a mystical manageable level. This strategy has failed, leading to lockdowns in Canada & around the world. Worse, this strategy is leading to 3rd waves & 3rd lockdowns.
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Prof @CarolineColijn oversaw epidemiological modelling of Canada’s COVID cases until April. Without a change in strategy, Canada will likely experience a 3rd wave this spring with a peak of over 9000 cases per day. We face a potential 3rd wave of lockdowns at Easter.
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Vaccinations will not save our spring. Present plans expect only 8% (3M) of Cdns to receive vaccine by Mar. 31. Even if successful, over 3,000 hospital beds will be required by end of March--same as in early Dec & at peak of first wave.
6/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
6/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
The COVID Strategic Choices Group was formed to identify & assess different strategies to manage the pandemic until vaccines are fully deployed. Members serve in their individual capacity and not as representatives of any organization.
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Valuable mix of expertise (incl. epidemiology, public health, public policy, economics & business) & regions. @mark_agnew @BeaulieuJA @CarolineColijn @IrfanDhalla @BrettEHouse @JackJedwab @JK_Khangura @MarionACrowe @DrJeffKwong @bhaggart @ASPphysician @JPSoucy @AshTuite
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The Group examined a sustained hard lockdown as used in Melbourne. Modelling shows that Canada could reduce cases to less than 40 new cases per day (1/M population) in about 100 days. However, the societal & short-term economic costs are significant.
9/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
9/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
The Group crafted a made-for-Canada alternative:
1. 4-6 wk lockdown until ~75% drop in cases + testing tracing, isolation & support works effectively
2. Keep cases declining afterwards by 17-25% a week
3. Shield those most affected
We call this Building a Canadian Shield
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1. 4-6 wk lockdown until ~75% drop in cases + testing tracing, isolation & support works effectively
2. Keep cases declining afterwards by 17-25% a week
3. Shield those most affected
We call this Building a Canadian Shield
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One month strict lockdown followed by weekly reductions of 17% a week, could reduce cases to less than 40 per day (1/M pop.) in 24 weeks. At 25% per week, Canada could reduce cases to less than 40 per day in 17 weeks. If launched Jan. 1, Canada could achieve by May 1.
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Canadian Shield Saves Lives
Biostatistical analysis concludes that the Melbourne Model and Canadian Shield could both save more than 5,000 lives by the end of April compared to Canada’s present COVID mitigation strategy.
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Biostatistical analysis concludes that the Melbourne Model and Canadian Shield could both save more than 5,000 lives by the end of April compared to Canada’s present COVID mitigation strategy.
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Prof Christopher Cotton & economists from @LimestoneAnalyt & Queen’s Univ applied their Short-Term Under-Capacity Dynamic Input-Output (STUDIO) economic model to assess the 3 strategies: Continued Mitigation, Melbourne Model & Canadian Shield.
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https://limestone-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020-December-Canadian-Choices-Scenario-Brief-2020-12-20.pdf
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https://limestone-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020-December-Canadian-Choices-Scenario-Brief-2020-12-20.pdf
Canada's present strategy had the worst economic outcomes. Building the Canadian Shield had the best. A Canadian Shield strategy creates an estimated $37 billion more economic growth than a Continued Mitigation strategy—$48 billion if there is a delay in vaccinations.
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Many of the sectors most affected by COVID are highly labour intensive. @LimestoneAnalyt's economic model projects that a Canadian Shield strategy could create over 320 thousand full-time equivalent jobs in 2021 compared with a Continued Mitigation strategy.
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Canadian Shield success = 5,000 lives; 320,000 jobs; $37 billion growth.
- New cases down 75% end of Jan
- Steady COVID case declines Feb - Apr
- <40 new COVID cases/day across Canada by May
- Fuller opening of economy & society this summer
16/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
- New cases down 75% end of Jan
- Steady COVID case declines Feb - Apr
- <40 new COVID cases/day across Canada by May
- Fuller opening of economy & society this summer
16/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
What does it take to Build the Canadian Shield?
First:
Explicitly shift strategy from “mitigation” to “persistent suppression” (i.e., persistently reduce cases each week until near-zero levels are reached).
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https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
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First:
Explicitly shift strategy from “mitigation” to “persistent suppression” (i.e., persistently reduce cases each week until near-zero levels are reached).
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https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
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What does it take to Build the Canadian Shield?
Second:
Make tough calls early. If necessary, expand/lengthen constraints until COVID cases numbers low enough to allow testing, tracing & isolation to work effectively.
18/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Second:
Make tough calls early. If necessary, expand/lengthen constraints until COVID cases numbers low enough to allow testing, tracing & isolation to work effectively.
18/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
What does it take to Build the Canadian Shield?
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Be considerate and humane. Recognize the asymmetric effects of the lockdown policies across individuals, businesses, and communities, and provide direct assistance to those most affected.
19/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Third:
Be considerate and humane. Recognize the asymmetric effects of the lockdown policies across individuals, businesses, and communities, and provide direct assistance to those most affected.
19/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
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Move faster than the virus with testing & tracing, isolation & support. These remain among the greatest underleveraged opportunities to reduce COVID’s Rt without restricting individual freedoms or constraining economic growth.
20/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Move faster than the virus with testing & tracing, isolation & support. These remain among the greatest underleveraged opportunities to reduce COVID’s Rt without restricting individual freedoms or constraining economic growth.
20/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
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Engage and empower the most affected communities to develop and apply customized strategies to beat COVID. Hospitals and governments ultimately do not stop infectious diseases—communities do.
21/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Engage and empower the most affected communities to develop and apply customized strategies to beat COVID. Hospitals and governments ultimately do not stop infectious diseases—communities do.
21/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Sixth:
Strengthen internal &, especially, intl borders to prevent COVID transmission while maintaining trade. Enhance perceived fairness & effectiveness of air travel controls. Who should be allowed to fly in or out of Canada, for what reason, & with what controls?
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Strengthen internal &, especially, intl borders to prevent COVID transmission while maintaining trade. Enhance perceived fairness & effectiveness of air travel controls. Who should be allowed to fly in or out of Canada, for what reason, & with what controls?
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Building a Canadian Shield requires political & public health leaders to acknowledge that the current mitigation strategy has failed. It was not a mistake to try, but it would be folly to continue.
23/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
23/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
Canada's key journalists & thought leaders have a critical role in assessing the best strategy to beat COVID in the months ahead. @DFisman @BogochIsaac @AntibioticDoc @TorontoIDDoc @picardonhealth @bruce_arthur
24/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
24/ https://covidstrategicchoices.ca
"Building the Canadian Shield is a challenging strategy requiring quick, decisive actions by govt & a whole of society engagement. However, it is achievable, & massively better than the status quo. It is possible, it is optimistic, it is constructive, it is Canadian."
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