THREAD on #Serbia and #Russia: During the opening of Serbian section of #TurkStream pipeline in Serbia, pro-Western Zorana Mihajlovic, Serbian Energy Minister and Deputy PM was not present, while Dusan Bajatovic, pro-Russian director of the state-owned gas distributor was there.

Mihajlovic failed to get rid of Bajatovic towards who she publicly displayed contempt. Bajatovic is from the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), a party of late Slobodan Milosevic. Bajatovic and Ivica Dacic, SPS leader and parliament chair are the champions for #Russia in #Serbia.

As SPS is still part of the government, it is evident that Russian influence in Serbia is still not entirely eliminated. However, the past year has been very tough for the relationship between the two countries, where Russia experienced several setbacks in Serbia.

#Russia and #Putin were displeased that #Serbia and its president #aleksandarvučić were trying to resolve #Kosovo dispute with the help of the #USA and #DonaldTrump. For Moscow, it meant losing one of the last remaining assets in the #Balkans and #Serbia pivoting towards the #US.

In July 2020, Serbia experienced violent anti-lockdown protests for which pro-government tabloids accused pro-Russian elements. A sign that Serbia was willing to scapegoat Russia to court the West. In September, Serbia also cancelled military drills with #Russia and #Belarus.

What keeps this relationship afloat? 1) #Kosovo: Belgrade fears #JoeBiden's presidency as Biden is expected to be tougher on Belgrade than Trump. Serbia needs a diplomatic protector, esp in the #UN, on Kosovo and Bosnia as the 25th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Accords went by.

2) Energy dependence: As demonstrated by the #Turkstream, Serbia cannot relieve itself of energy dependence on Russia, that owns 51% in Serbian national gas company (a payoff for Kosovo). The Serbian president said that with #Turkstream, Serbia met its energy security needs.

3) Popularity of Russia and Putin in Serbia implies that Serbian politicians can score domestic PR points by being friendly with Russia and taking a photo-op with Putin. Overt anti-Russian moves are avoided to avoid alienating pro-Russian parts of the electoral body in Serbia.

Serbo-Russian relations are downgraded, and we should not be expecting any spectacular wow effects as we have seen in previous years. However, the combination of factors underlined above still makes #Russia an important vector in Serbian foreign policy, that can't be written off.