My top 7 #fintech lending predictions for 2021:

1. The US consumer is going to struggle mid-year.

Will be tough to pass more stimulus as the vaccine rolls out. There will be a gap mid-year as current stimulus wears off but before the economy fully re-opens.

2. Small businesses will see a flip back to local, where people go online less and out to dinner/entertainment more as the economy re-opens.

2020 vintage Saas businesses may survive, but the pace of growth will slow, breaking hockey sticks.

3. Less liquidity in the second half of the year. We’re at all time liquidity highs, so this is probably an easy call.

But, there will be a pull back and a potential pricing gap down if the first line of bids disappear.

4. Continued consolidation of fintech lenders, both big and small.

This will be a big year for strategic acquisitions and mergers, not just picking up things on the cheap (eg. OnDeck).

5. Buy Now Pay Later is challenged by credit cards. Maybe higher credit limits, more cards, or something unforeseen.

But, we’re at the point where the credit card industry takes note of losing market share at checkout. And they have a lot of money to throw at this.

6. CFPB comes roaring back.

Expect a few big headline making takedowns of the violators that the Trump CFPB looked the other way on.

7. SBA loans steal back market share.

Between banks desire to get back in the mix and a loosing of SBA loans structurally from the stimulus bills, we will see more business opt for cheaper and more accessible SBA loans.