We start 2021 with some bad news (and some good) as the most recent week has seen the highest number of new coronavirus cases in Devon and Cornwall reported yet - but in some areas, cases are falling, with others seeing only a very small rise

Government statistics show that 3,287 new cases have been confirmed across the region in the past seven days in both pillar 1 data from tests carried out by the NHS and pillar 2 data from commercial partners, compared to 1,921 new cases confirmed last week.

Of the 3,287 cases confirmed since Dec 25, 1371 are in Cornwall, with 213 in East Devon, 252 in Exeter, 155 in Mid Devon, 122 in North Devon, 657 in Plymouth, 120 in the South Hams, 170 in Teignbridge, 112 in Torbay, 60 in Torridge and 55 in West Devon

This compares to the 1,921 new cases confirmed between Dec 19 and 25, of which 467 were in Cornwall, 197 in Exeter, 193 in East Devon, 110 in Mid Devon, 149 in North Devon, 289 in Plymouth, 77 in South Hams, 164 in Teignbridge, 96 in Torbay, 74 in Torridge and 105 in West Devon

And by specimen date, cases in North Devon, West Devon and Torridge are falling - with East Devon, Mid Devon, Teignbridge and Torbay relatively flat - but Exeter, South Hams, Plymouth and especially Cornwall are seeing rises

For tests between Dec 21 and 27, positivity rates in Cornwall are 5.7%, with 4.5% in East Devon, 6.1% in Exeter, 5.5% in Mid Devon, 5% in North Devon, 6.8% in Plymouth, 4.6% in South Hams, 4.3% in Teignbridge, 2.5% in Torbay, 3.4% in Torridge and 6.5% in West Devon.

For Trust level hospital figures (as of Dec 30 and compared to the figures from Dec 23) Torbay Hospital has 13 patients (down from 16), North Devon Hospital 29 (down from 32), RDE has 82 (down from 114), the Nightingale Exeter has 21 (down from 28).....

with 40 in Cornwall (up from 38). Derriford has risen to 34 (up from 23), but may be down to some critical care patients from Kent being transferred to Plymouth - and if more patients are transferred from elsewhere then it does mean this figure becomes a lot harder to rely on

In terms of clusters for the Dec 21-27 period, areas with more than 20 are St Columb Minor & Porth (46), Probus & Roseland (38), Newquay West (34), Truro South & Central (24), Newquay East (32), Par (21), St Agnes & Mount Hawke and Shortlanesend, Chacewater & Carnon Downs (22)..

Callington & Pensilva (20), The Lizard (23), Hayle (24), St Columb Major & St Mawgan (26), St Austell East & Carlyon Bay, and St Austell Central (22), Lostwithiel & Penwithick (21), Ottery St Mary & West Hill (26) Cranbrook, Broadclyst & Stoke Canon (28), Middlemoor & Sowton (23)

Keyham (138 - but HMS Northumberland related), Plymstock Elburton (49), Cattedown & Prince Rock (21), and Chagford, Princetown & Dartmoor (66, but Dartmoor Prison related) - so almost exclusively in Cornwall is where the areas with significant numbers of cases are.

Those areas reported 0-2 cases are Bodmin East, Camelford & Tresmeer, Lanreath, Pelynt & Polraun, Looe & Polperro, Penzance South & Newlyn, Saltash Latchbrook & St Stephens, St Just & Land's End, Torpoint, Poppleford, Otterton & Woodbury, Seaton, Totnes Town.....

Ipplepen & Broadhempston, Paignton Central, Great Torrington, Okehampton, and of course, the Isles of Scilly. Any impact of Xmas mixing won't be seen yet until probably Sunday/Monday at the earliest given the lag from infections to reporting (and Tier 3 not until next weekend)

In terms of cases by age range, the Cornwall rises are mainly in the 20-34 age range, with Plymouth and Devon in the 20-39 age range, although the latter has seen a spike in the over 90s as well, indicating probably care home outbreaks in Mid Devon and Teignbridge

Today's figures from NHS England also saw no new deaths in hospital in any of Devon and Cornwall's hospitals - and the numbers of deaths being reported does seem to have slowed down, although deaths of course relate to infection from 2/3 weeks ago before the recent rise

We're almost looking at two different situations in Devon and Cornwall. In Cornwall and Plymouth, cases are dramatically rising to the highest levels seen during the pandemic (although of course, we don't really know how bad it was in March/April due lack of testing)

In Torbay and the rest of Devon though, numbers of new cases are not rising to the same extent and in some places, not rising at all. Next week with the Xmas impact will be interesting to see what happens - but any rise should be followed by a fall due to Tier 3 restrictions

And there's this as well, which I didn't realise had gone live today, where Steve Brown, Devon’s public health director designate, talks through how Devon dealt with Coronavirus https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/how-devons-health-teams-battled-4824600