On the eve of anniversary events marking the deaths of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad, it is still unclear the extent to which these events may spin out of control and result in a confrontation between the U.S. and pro-Iranian factions.

Iraqi Shiite insurgent sources have told me that "nothing is certain" about the anniversary and key regional figures like Lebanese Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah have publicly admitted they have no idea what (if anything) the Trump administration has planned in its final days.

Nonetheless, the presence of tens of thousands of angry demonstrators (including those affiliated with Shiite militias) in close proximity to a U.S. military post at Baghdad Airport and the Green Zone amidst heightened tensions has an obvious potential for violence.

As the casualties of the January 2020 U.S. airstrike in Baghdad included not only Qasem Soleimani but also revered Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the potential for violence likely exists even if Iran was not encouraging it.