Thread by @ClareCraigPath, The positive rate for community testing and hospital testing reached a low [...]

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The positive rate for community testing and hospital testing reached a low and then turned an increased *simultaneously* at the beginning of December.

It doesn't look like a big deal but it is.

In real disease there would be a lag between the two. Which means....

The positive rate for community testing and hospital testing reached a low and then turned an increased *simultaneously* at the beginning of December. It doesn't look like a big deal but it is.In real disease there would be a lag between the two. Which means....

that the data is starting to unravel now.

In every corner of the country case numbers are no longer a good predictor of deaths.

It makes it look like COVID has got more deadly. But it's not that - why would it do that to a different extent in each region?

that the data is starting to unravel now. In every corner of the country case numbers are no longer a good predictor of deaths.It makes it look like COVID has got more deadly. But it's not that - why would it do that to a different extent in each region?

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

It is a consequence of different false positive rates.

The exception currently (but not in Autumn) is London:

The exception currently (but not in Autumn) is London:

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