It’s now 2021 and the world's biggest economy has no bedrock law to limit CO2 emissions. This is important because (1) climate change may be the largest and most intractable threat the world has faced and (2) @JesseJenkins owes me a bottle of fancy whiskey.

**GLOAT-STORM**

To recap, in The Before Times, Jesse and I saw 2 camps in the climate world: one supported US climate policy starting by putting a price on every ton of emissions and building from there: the carbon tax camp... (2/x)

The other camp preferred a sector-by-sector approach, starting with mandates for cleaner electricity: the Clean Electricity Standard (CES) camp. (3/x)

Jesse and I support both of these policies, but we disagreed on which policy would gain more support heading into 2021. So we bet on it. Specifically, we bet on whether carbon taxes or CES proposals would end 2020 with more cosponsors in Congress. So let's check it out. (4/x)

There were 10 separate carbon tax proposals in this Congress (see below from the great @C2ES_org) with 102 (ish) co-sponsors. (5/x)

And, unless I'm missing any, which is very possible, 3 CES proposals (from @BPC_Bipartisan below) with 20 (ish) cosponsors. (6/x)

So, I hereby declare myself the winner***

[With 3 asterisks, explained below]

But first, the real winners are the 7(ish) in Congress who signed on to both a carbon tax and a CES: @MartinHeinrich, @SenWhitehouse @brianschatz @LisaBRochester @RepPerlmutter @RepAnnieKuster @RepScottPeters ...

...to borrow Cory Booker's line, supporting either of these policies if they become viable should be Kindergarten for anyone in Congress who wants to be seen as a climate champion. With all due respect, it’s insane there aren’t more than 7 (but I may have missed some)...

Now to the the 3 asterisks I put on my victory. First, if we were awarding whiskey based on the *spirit* of the bet -- which policy has more support right now -- Jesse would have a really strong case....

After all, climate reports form the Biden campaign, the House Climate Crisis Committee, House E&C, and Senate Dems (read them all!) mentioned support for both policies, but the CES is much more front and center in all...

OTOH the biggest reason I won this bet was the grassroots support for carbon taxes, like the tens of thousands of volunteers from @citizensclimate who plead with policymakers on the regular. It's hard to imagine this type of support for a CES, and that matters IMO....

Second asterisk. COVID. I think it’s fair to say neither of us saw a global pandemic coming. And that really changes the first priority for 2021, climate or otherwise, which are now clearly health and economic crises...

Could we do both at once? Absolutely. In fact my favorite proposal this Congress is from @SenatorDurbin, which combines a carbon tax with direct payments to households, green spending, support for frontline and fossil fuel communities, etc. Awesome bill.. https://www.durbin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/durbin-introduces-bill-to-fund-a-clean-climate-future

But political realities may be such that, for the time being, we're addressing climate through COVID recovery, and therefore spending on innovation, tax credits, etc. (if that sounds familiar, it might be because it's been our climate playbook of the last 3 decades)...

Speaking of political realities. The third asterisk. Politics. The premise of the bet was that 2021 might be the opportunity to pass one of these policies without Trump and/or McConnell stopping them..

The premise falls apart unless if the Democrats win both GA senate seats this week. So, if by some miracle there is someone who has read this far in this thread and can still vote in GA, please vote...

Anyhow, happy new year twitter friends. All of you make me smarter every day I’m on here, and nobody does it better than my friend and 2nd place finisher @JesseJenkins..

Finally, if anyone in Congress is still searching for a New Year's Resolution, can I interest you in a net-zero consistent carbon price? https://twitter.com/noahqk/status/1295401966693228550