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Today I published this piece in Spanish on the comprehensive investment agreement (CAI) between the EU and China. Below some of the key points in English in a thread 
https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/mundo/tribuna-internacional/2021-01-01/union-europea-ejerce-autonomia-estrategica-china_2891648/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=appEC
https://blogs.elconfidencial.com/mundo/tribuna-internacional/2021-01-01/union-europea-ejerce-autonomia-estrategica-china_2891648/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=appEC
First, I've visited China many times over the past 10 years and my take is similar to Merkel's. I've never spoken to her, but from all I've read she is convinced that China is too big and too dynamic to be left alone. On this, see @noahbarkin's piece https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/31/what-merkel-really-thinks-about-china-and-the-world/
Two, following this line of thought kudos to Merkel & the Commission for getting the CAI over the finish line. I was always skeptical about how much China was ready to give and although it might be too little for some, I agree that it would be hard to get much more out of Beijing
Three, there are two views on the CAI. Those who think that this is a bad timing because China is increasingly authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad, and those who think that precisely at this moment it is important to take China's opening-up offer, even if it is small
Four, the Commission and the 27 "co-repers" appear to be inclined to follow the second take, and I concur with this decision. The final draft still needs to be released, but from what I read there is enough "further openness" by China to suggest that this is not a bad deal.
Five, of course, you can always ask for more. Reciprocity is not assured, & the EP is right in pressing for further commitment on ILO conventions. But those who thought the CAI would push China to cease to be a state capitalism were too optimistic (& thus prone to b dissapointed)
Six, it is important to understand how China works. As @BrankoMilan has explained, in the chinese system the "contract" is not all what matters. There is a lot policy discretion. Beijing might decide not to enforce what it has signed, but it can also open-up more if it so wishes
Seven, in the Chinese system, more than the written deal, what matters is trust between the partners. The EU has now given China another chance to open-up and create momentum. It is now down to Beijing to deliver. Because if China doesn't open, Europe will continue to close down
Eight, many worry that this deal might anger the Biden Administration. Maybe, but this is a bilateral deal, and Brussels does not need to ask DC when it comes to safeguard its own interests. The Chinese came with an offer, it was good enough and the Commission took it. C'est ça
Nine, this does not change the fact that the US remains the EU's most important partner and that both powers share many interests and objectives in relation to China. But if the EU wants to be a geopolitical actor it needs to take its own decisions without waiting for Washington
Ten, the message here is clear. The EU still believes that there is a positive-sum game to play with China. This is a rejection of decoupling and a bet for further engagement and hedging. Without naivité but with convicton. In fact it is a first attempt of strategic autonomy. END
