Full fact are embarrassing themselves. It’s not possible to assert “false positives are not common enough...” as Govt has stated it doesn’t know the false positive rate.
When I wrote my first article on topic, I stated that a 1% FPR would, at the then prevailing prevalence...
.. mean that the fraction of positive tests which were false would be of the order of 90%. https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/
It turns out that at that very time, working away over in Swansea, a physician was re-testing his patients who got positive PCR test results. It turns out that...
...86% IIRC (several weeks since I specifically tweeted about it & the false diagnosis rate cited there is the value derived from analysis of the paper).
https://www.rcpjournals.org/content/clinmedicine/early/2020/11/26/clinmed.2020-0839.full.pdf?download=true
I don’t expect an apology from Full Fact (no laughing at the back) but I was spot on. I am now, too.
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