Okay, I’m now going to put my Masters dissertation into a thread! This was a volcanology, disaster studies and social-psychology project I did looking at the risk perceptions of Soufrière in 2014. So caution, people’s attitudes may (I hope so) have changed since then! (1/?) https://twitter.com/scarlett_jazmin/status/1344033589969747974

Risk perceptions are an important part in understanding what hazard education is (or not) working. Risk perceptions determine the possibility of how a hazard is likely to affect a person based on their views, which differs from the hazard *knowledge*...

Risk perceptions include an person’s own knowledge of a hazard, preparedness and confidence in decisions makers. There are many factors that determine a person’s perception to a hazard including: past experience of the hazard, education, mental health, culture and family.

All these personal factors and more, allows a person to decide what action (or not) to take in the face of a threat. Any kind of threat, not just a volcano.

I set out to build upon existing research into risk perceptions, which at the time, had not focused on Caribbean volcanoes. I did this in the form of questionnaires and informal discussions exploring: hazard saliency (which hazards are on people’s minds), confidence in...

...in authorities and scientists, self-efficacy (how much control do people feel they have in protecting themselves and others), knowledge of volcanic hazards and factual info of Soufrière and thoughts on any future activity (which is ironic considering what is happening now!)

100 questionnaires were distributed and received across the island. This research built upon previous for volcanoes in Italy, New Zealand, Guatemala, Ecuador, Hawai’i, Cameroon amongst others.

I visited the following spaces all within the space of a month (Vincentians, let me know if you live in these areas or know someone who does!): Sandy Bay, Owia, Magnum, O’Brien’s, Langley Park, Mt Bentinck, Georgetown, Byera, Bellevue, Park Hill, South Rivers, Colonarie...

...Chester Cottage, Mt Greenan, South Union, Queensbury, Layou and Redemption Sharpes, Camden Park, Kingstown, Lodge Village, Dorestshire Hill, Calliaqua, Arnos Vale and Harmony Hall. Phew! I did have help with this, otherwise it wouldn’t have been possible!

People were of different ages, from 15-60+. I believe this was important to get a diverse range of responses at different life stages. The first cluster of questions was on various natural hazards that impact St Vincent and hazard saliency:

Tropical storms (90 people), earthquakes (55 people), landslides (79 people) and floods (72 people), were believed to threaten themselves, their family and their community once every 5 years or less. Which makes sense, these are all very common hazards experienced on the island.

Whilst the majority of people (average 23...people many answers), did not know when a volcanic eruption would threaten them. This indicates people’s uncertainty of when Soufriere would erupt, which also makes sense - they don’t happen as often as other hazards on the island.

Knowledge of Soufrière: 97 people correctly identified that 1979 was the last time it erupted, whilst 61 believed it to be dormant, and 39 active. This is a completely fine assumption to have, many believe volcanoes to be ‘active’ when a volcano is actually doing something.

In geological terms however, a volcano is defined as ‘active’ if the volcano has erupted at least once in the past 10,000 years! I also asked what are benefits of Soufrière, and the majority said the fertile soil the 2nd highest was the tourism.

51 out of 100 people believed in terms of property, loss of life and the environment damage, Soufrière is considered extremely dangerous. This does indicate that people had a greater perceived risk that the volcano could pose.

In term of volcanic hazard knowledge, this was about if they knew it happened at Soufrière and also how dangerous they were. 88 people knew of volcanic ash, 73 of volcanic gases and 88 damage to crops and livestock...however, those that were believed to be extremely severe:

Lava flows (43) (which have not breached the crater for millions of years), volcanic projectiles (30) (limited to the red zone) pyroclastic flows (27), ash fall (41), volcanic gases (34) (very much confined but depends on wind direction) and earthquakes (22).

There was a good awareness of volcanic hazards that Soufrière can produce BUT categorising which hazards are the most to least severe (e.g. lahars are very dangerous if you’re in a river valley but this was scored low), varied greatly, especially if split by hazard zone.

In terms of preparedness (do bare in mind this was before great efforts to increase public awareness and strengthening the island’s capacity to cope!), 41 people believed they were not prepared for a possible future eruption, and 51 believed their community wasn’t prepared.

For those who said they were prepared, they mentioned they have: an evacuation plan, secure important documents and other essentials within reach, extra food and drink, listen/watch media, self-education, secure homes, leave (the island), portable battery operated radio...

.../torch/first aid kit/spare money, face masks and a shovel prepared to remove ash on and around property (this last one is certainly related to the 1979 explosive eruption which covered the whole island in volcanic ash and it took a lot of effort for everyone to clear!)

These are great and reasonable measures to take, but hopefully now in 2021(!) more people at least have an evacuation plan as they are vital. Another bunch of questions focused on the confidence of people who make decisions regarding disasters. Scientists were ranked 1st...

in terms how confident people had in providing information. The authorities and government were 2nd. And people believed this was best told via media (TV and radio). Social media wasn’t included at the time! Now, last section was what would happen in the future...

This is strange looking at my dissertation now! 82 people believed Soufrière would erupt again, with 25 people saying it would be in the next 50 years (remember this was done in 2014!). 52 people believed they would be able to know if an eruption was about to happen...