ONE year since General #Soleimani’s assassination what position #Iran holds in #Iraq today? A Thread

#Iran’s power in Iraq has been declining since the #IRGCQF head was targeted by #US and you don’t need to be a political analyst to recognize it.

It seems Iran can’t rely on its tradition Iraqi allies anymore. We saw it when Ammar al-Hakim, a man whose family always enjoyed #Iran’s generous support insisted on al-Kadhimi’s premiership, against wishes of Iran and PMU. Iran disliked al-Kadhimi. #Iraq

Another traditional ally Muqtada al-Sadr distanced himself from #Iran totally. He recently warned Iran & US to settle their scores out of #Iraq. Big rifts appeared within Popular Mobilization Units following death of their powerful head Abu Mehdi Muhandis alongside #Soleimani .

PM Kadhimi neither pays #Iran’s $6 billion debt for natural gas & electricity imports nor allows Iran to use its funds frozen in #Iraq banks. Although Iraqis recently pledged Iran Energy Min to pay their debt, it’s still uncertain. They pledged CBI Hemmati twice but to no avail.

In addition, #Iraq has refused to pursue #Soleimani and Muhandis assassination legally. It kept borders closed to Iranian businessmen and pilgrims since last year on pretext of #Coronavirus. This policy reduced #Iran’s presence and maneuvering power in Iraq dramatically.

Despite talking of harsh revenge for domestic use, #Iran has assured #US and #Iraq that it won’t retaliate #Soleimani’s assassination for now. Tehran keeps revenge as an open-ended goal equal to US expulsion from West Asia. A goal
beyond reach in near or long-term future.

#IRGCQF now looks unable to rein in some allies within PMU. Rocket attacks on US embassy and Qaani’s trip to Baghdad to ask militias to keep restraint is a sign.
Today head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq -Khazali- was quoted as saying, he wished they’d responded to assassination sooner.

#Iran “strategic patience” policy vis-a-vis #US has expanded to all arenas. The policy -seasoned with some rhetoric of revenge after #Soleimani’s killing- is now estranging Islamic Republic’s ardent supporters & allies not only inside, but also outside. https://twitter.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1332401459208523776?s=20

This is what I meant: a journalist close to Rouhani’s circle blames PM Kadhimi for #Iraq abstain vote to #US bid to revive #Iran sanction cmte at UN (rejected by 110 countries). He calls Kadhimi weak, inept & coward; vows he will receive his response. https://twitter.com/faridmodaresi/status/1345001246567133190?s=21