I am in the market for positive, optimistic articles about Brexit - it may not be how Iâm feeling but Iâm sure Iâve missed things + want to avoid confirmation bias so Iâm opening my mind, + this seemed like a good place to start https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/31/the-left-brexit-economic-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Elliott argues that âthe UK has deep, structural economic problemsâ - true, but correlation is not causation: we look in vain for an argument that these problems are caused by EU membership and/or that membership is preventing them being tackled
The argument would be stronger if Elliott could show that other countries in the EU faced similar structural problems, but he doesnât + I donât think he could - the EU manages to incorporate a wide range of economic models, + regional inequalities vary hugely between EU countries
He does not attempt to acknowledge + explain the boom in inward investment in UK manufacturing in the last few decades, one of the few economic positives for âleft behind areasâ, though that may have been hard without referring to single market membership + European supply chains
âBrexit means that those farmers who want their fruit harvested will now have to...pay higher wages or invest in new machinery.â Maybe they will (but Iâm not convinced) but this would have unintended consequences eg higher prices for healthy food
And even if so Elliott doesnât explain how it will drive the wider productivity revolution we need (agriculture is under 1% of the economy), nor how labour-intensive/publicly funded service sectors (most obviously social care) could adapt
âThe City will continue to thriveâ we are assured. Good. We are then reminded why we shouldnât have joined the single currency, which we didnât
Some criticisms of the EUâs approach to Covid-19, which are irrelevant (since to all intents and purposes the UK was still in the EU last year + managed to enact a distinct + not wholly successful approach)
âThe four freedoms of the single market â no barriers to the movement of goods, services, people and capital â are actually the four pillars of neoliberalismâ hints at an economic vision based on a relatively closed economy, but there is no further explanation
âLeaving the EU means UK governments no longer have anywhere to hideâ this implies UK Governments will suddenly become more democratic, accountable + effective, which I hope is true but the evidence of 2020 doesnât give much cause for optimism
âThey have economic levers they can pull...and they will come under pressure to use themâ which implies there are easy solutions to the economic problems we face which UK Governments will be able + willing to put into place now we are outside the EU, again Iâm not optimistic
What reasons are there to think that? what are the things we can do now we couldnât do before? and what reason is there to think that outside the EU the UK Government will suddenly refocus? Elliott provides no hint of an answer
âThis, though, assumes that Britain will have rightwing governments in perpetuityâ Elliott does not even acknowledge the high risk post-Brexit of Scottish independence which does risk the rump UK generally having right wing Governments
âIt used to be the left who welcomed change and the right that wanted things to remain the sameâ this is often untrue (see Thatcher) but in any case change is not good by definition, + Elliott doesnât make the case that this is a change that the left should welcome
I didnât expect to have my mind changed by Elliott but I hoped he would make me think âah I can see thereâs some things to be positive aboutâ, but he didnât
Iâm left frustrated because he simply ignores the things that many of us are worried about - the economic costs and risks to inward investment of being outside the single market, with few benefits in practice, as well as the cultural baggage the right brings to Brexit
If he acknowledged those concerns + explained some positives to counter them, some specifics of things that could be better now, I would have found the article interesting and thought-provoking. As it is, Iâm afraid just found it vague and unconvincing /ends