Right time for predictions for 2021. I do this every January 1st and last year’s were pretty much all correct. So it’s all downhill from here but I’ll do my best…. https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1212327648338337795

1) COVID: I’m bullish about the vaccine rollout in the UK and expect 20m to have at least a first dose by March with all adults who want one having at least one dose by the end of August. Globally I’d expect 2.5/3 billion vaccinations this year.

2) COVID: Jan will be grim but we should start to see an impact on death rates by the end of the month + hospitalisation in Feb. I’d expect restrictions to ease in Feb/March + relative normality by May, with mask-wearing; restrictions on indoor events and travel lasting longer.

3) BREXIT: it will stop being a first order political issue but the Govt have a strong incentive to overplay any plausible benefit to divergence, which will piss remainers off even more. The entrenched camps amongst hardcore Brexiteers/Remainers aren’t going anywhere.

4) BREXIT: the deal has 5 year reviews built in, which guarantees its return as a political issue. By the end of this year camps will coalesce around campaigns to use the review to diverge more or align more. This is the form our never-ending debate about the EU will now take.

5) UK POLITICS: We have a big set of elections in May. That Khan will win another term in London + the SNP another majority in Scotland are the safest predictions you can make about 2021. I’d also expect Labour to add at least 500 councillors in the local elections in England.

6) UK POLITICS: The SNP’s win will mean a second referendum in Scotland becomes a dominant issue in the second half of the year. I don’t think we’ll have one in 2021 and Johnson will make lots of defiant statements, but the pressure will build. I can see it happening in 2022.

7) UK POLITICS: The other predictable big issue for the second half of the year is dealing with the economic fallout of COVID. I expect to see growing tension +briefing wars between Sunak, who seems to have swallowed HMT orthodoxy, and Johnson who is intuitively anti-austerity.

8) US POLITCS: Dems will win both Georgia senate seats next week (this is the prediction that feels most like tempting fate but it’s what the data says atm). But Biden still won’t be able to get anything through the senate because of their mad filibuster rules.

9) US POLITICS: This means Biden will focus in his first year on vaccinations and undoing Trump’s international messes. This will include rejoining the Paris agreement on climate change and reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

10) US POLITICS: Bit of a wildcard one but I expect Ivanka to emerge as the Trumpian continuity candidate for 2024. Watching GOP senators calculate the right level of obeisance vs their own ambitions could be quite entertaining.

11) GLOBAL POLITCS: A few other big elections I’m interested in: in Germany the post-Merkel CDU will win and end up in coalition with Greens; in Israel Netanyahu will somehow retain power again (I pray I’m wrong on this one); and in Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed will stay in power.

12) Bonus sports predictions: Team GB to finish in the top 3 in the Olympics medal table again, with Dina Asher-Smith the potential breakout star, and Spain to win the Euros.

Right let's see how those fare...