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This is nonsense - you can't outrun the virus (which grows exponentially) with a vaccine programme (which doesn't). /1
Here's a graphic via @SimpleCovid to explain.
The Wolf is the virus with cases doubling every 9 days in London right now.
| https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk |
The Rabbit is the vaccine programme, currently doing ~300,000 doses/week in the UK.
| https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare |
Who wins? /2
The Wolf is the virus with cases doubling every 9 days in London right now.
| https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk |
The Rabbit is the vaccine programme, currently doing ~300,000 doses/week in the UK.
| https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare |
Who wins? /2
Despite the massive head-start the Wolf easily catches up.
By the time the Rabbit reaches 100m, the Wolf is already a kilometre away. /3
By the time the Rabbit reaches 100m, the Wolf is already a kilometre away. /3
We cannot outrun the virus.
It's estimated 30% of the UK pop. are vulnerable to severe disease - which is ~20,000,000 people https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30264-3/fulltext#seccestitle160
At 300K a week, it takes 15 months to vaccinate them all.
If we tripled the programme, to 1m a week, it would take till May. /4
It's estimated 30% of the UK pop. are vulnerable to severe disease - which is ~20,000,000 people https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30264-3/fulltext#seccestitle160
At 300K a week, it takes 15 months to vaccinate them all.
If we tripled the programme, to 1m a week, it would take till May. /4
To achieve an end to the pandemic through vaccination alone, would mean reaching a herd immunity threshold.
With the new variant this would need to be very high, ~80% or above, or 52m people.
Even at 1m doses/ week, it takes a year to do this. /5
With the new variant this would need to be very high, ~80% or above, or 52m people.
Even at 1m doses/ week, it takes a year to do this. /5
And in the meantime we continue to average 550 deaths/ day. If that continued on until May that's another >70,000 deaths from today, and continue overwhelming pressure on hospitals and healthcare.
We can't outrun the Wolf. We must tackle it. /6
We can't outrun the Wolf. We must tackle it. /6
Which means aggressive suppression measures, with everything we have, to reduce the virus as much as possible.
And aggressive vaccination programmes, running 24/7, day and night, as fast as we can deliver it. /7
And aggressive vaccination programmes, running 24/7, day and night, as fast as we can deliver it. /7
So, here comes the New Year's resolution, same (at least for now) as the old one:
Wash your hands, cover your face, make space, fresh air and stay at home.
What we make of 2021 is entirely up to us.
Let's get this one right this time. /end
Wash your hands, cover your face, make space, fresh air and stay at home.
What we make of 2021 is entirely up to us.
Let's get this one right this time. /end
