Read on Twitter
I read about these 3/4-digit % returns for 2020 on Twitter. Sounds fantastic, right? Now, take a step back and think about risk. Does it feel like some have been playing red at the roulette table and won three times in a row (that’s a x8)?
I’ve seen this a few times before and this is usually not good (especially when the masses and leverage get involved). This is always the sign of something that is unsustainable and will end badly at some point.
Of course that sounds like jealousy and envy. But it’s not. It’s just being rational when everyone is losing their head around you. It’s just keeping a sustainable approach when everyone else is greedy and thinks the game is easy.
It’s not easy. It’s never been and will never be. The game is about survival. The game is about avoiding mistakes and stupidity. The game is about not keeping with those bragging about how easy it is. That’s the only way of winning over the long run: another unpopular 3 words...
So don’t try and keep up with the crowd, especially now. Be rational. Be wise. Block the noise more than ever. Think margin of safety and compounding. It’ll be fine...in the end.
It’s not a sprint. It wasn’t meant to be. It’s not even a marathon. It’s an ultra-trail race. A hard one at that.
