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GA Update: The GOP should be downright alarmed (and Dems ebullient) at the EV totalsYes we all know about Cobb & DeKalb coming out huge, but the rural (esp Collins counties) are lagging enormously
My read? I think the Dems are gonna pull this off
Habersham county is a good example of GOP rurals: In GE 20k voters came out giving Trump/Perdue 80% of the vote
EV GE: 17k
EV Today: 12k
Final GE: 20k
A 30% drop off in Runoff vs. GE EV turnout makes sense. But on Eday, Habersham only saw a 17% increase in total votes from EV
EV GE: 17k
EV Today: 12k
Final GE: 20k
A 30% drop off in Runoff vs. GE EV turnout makes sense. But on Eday, Habersham only saw a 17% increase in total votes from EV
Bottom line: Dem counties are experiencing ~10% *less* of an EV drop off than GOP ones
The GOP is asking its voters to come out somewhere like 20% *more* on Tuesday than they did on GE Eday (vs. EVs)
...that is a very tall order. Probably insurmountable
The GOP is asking its voters to come out somewhere like 20% *more* on Tuesday than they did on GE Eday (vs. EVs)
...that is a very tall order. Probably insurmountable
Addendum: I had been bearish on Dems for last 2 months but that was predicated on AAs falling off
They haven't
If I'm wrong (happens frequently!) it will be b/c the GA GOP had a turnout operation that was unreal. (And I will painstakingly detail how/why I got it wrong)
They haven't
If I'm wrong (happens frequently!) it will be b/c the GA GOP had a turnout operation that was unreal. (And I will painstakingly detail how/why I got it wrong)
