THREAD $CDPR
The release and subsequent backlash of the highly anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077 by CD Projekt Red is a fascinating case study.

Conclusion: It pays to delay. You only get to make a first impression once.

Somewhat obvious. From Nintendo Great Shigeru Miyamoto: “A delayed game is eventually good, but a rushed game is forever bad.” This quote gets brought up every time a game is delayed but I don’t think it can be stressed enough. The Halo decision now looks like a very smart one.

More subtle conclusion: Making best in class games as a publisher/developer is a repeat game. You can build up a reputation over time and this pays dividends in the future. However, it does not take long to ruin that reputation.

Suggestion for all developers aiming for the designation of Best in Class developer: Don’t put out a release date until you know the target date is very realistic (easy to say from my position). There’s a saying in game development: https://twitter.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/671414967418114049?s=20

Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow has a great chapter on teams that estimate how long it will take to finish a project and people/teams are consistently terrible at this.

History of Cyberpunk 2077
Announced May 2012 (the Witcher 3 was released in 2015 and has gone on to sell 40+mn copies). 7 years later at E3 2019, Keanu Reeves came out of the smoke at the Xbox presentation and announced an April 16, 2020 release date for the game or <12 mos away.

I was at E3 that year but unfortunately was not smart enough to attend this in person. As a gaming fan watching from my computer, it was one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen.

In January 2020, CDPR delayed the game launch to September 17.

In June, CDPR again delayed the game. This time to November 19.
Finally, on October 27th, CDPR delayed the launch of the game for the last time to December 10th. In hindsight, this delay to a date right before Xmas with so little time left was a huge red flag.

On December 7th, the review embargo lifted and review sites started putting up review scores. On Metacritic the game received a 9 out of 10 with many reviews noting bugs, which they expected to be patched with a day 1 patch.

When the game was released, it was clear that the reviewers got the best possible copy of the game (Next gen consoles or PC). The game reportedly is almost unplayable for Playstation 4 and Xbox One. Both PS and Xbox offered refunds to last gen console owners.

The state of the game for last gen consoles was surprising given 1) the player base there is ~100mn vs. next gen at ~10mn; and 2) Cyberpunk’s original release date was set before the next gen consoles were even supposed to be released.

The lesson here is if you made a mistake, do NOT hide it. Once uncovered, you will look much worse than had you just come clean.

What about the stock?
CDR PW Equity reached ~$12bn in mkt cap shortly before launch. For a co that reported $135mn in revs in the previous year (all about expectations obviously). Post launch, the stock dropped ~30% from the highs and is flat YTD vs. most VG publishers up 30-50%

One bulge bracket bank had forecasted the game to sell 100mn units over 5 years for Cyberpunk 2077. On par with GTA V, the bestselling modern game of all time (over two consoles) with a healthy online component and frequent content drops.

Addressing a popular myth.
https://twitter.com/agentbizzle/status/1344073758915477504?s=20
I don’t believe investors ruined this game. The founders of CDPR own 30+% of the stock. I have been in meetings with some of these founders. They care deeply about their craft, their reputation, and their games.

Any institutional investor who owns shares in size likely has belief in the vision of these founders to put out a Game of the Year caliber game every time they release a new game. The true story is probably pretty simple.

The company put out too aggressive of a time line. After repeated delays, they didn’t want to miss the crucial Holiday season. Dec 10 was pretty much the last feasible date to release.

This is silly when you think about it. TTWO’s Strauss Zelnick (or maybe it was Karl) said for games like Red Dead (or Cyberpunk), it doesn't matter when you release them. These games don't need the Holiday bump as they should sell well for years.

Some people at CDPR likely tried to delay the game, but ultimately the call was in the hands of a few people (I’m guessing) who made the wrong decision.

Game delays for huge, ambitious games are not new.

See Metroid Prime 4 (still no release date). Final Fantasy 15 or 7 Remake. Halo Infinite. I highly recommend Jason Schreier’s Blood, Sweat, and Pixels for an in-depth look at game development for ~8 games (AAA and Indie). https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Sweat-Pixels-Triumphant-Turbulent/dp/0062651234

In this context, it is actually a miracle that $ATVI 's Call of Duty gets put out every year in great shape during the Holiday season. They have game making down to a science (which is hard to do because it is an art).

Can CDPR fix their reputation and the game? Maybe. I think the quote “Nothing is as good as it seems, and nothing is as bad as it seems. Somewhere in between lies realty.” Is probably true here. I don’t think Cyberpunk will go out and sell 100mn copies.

But I thought that was a stretch to begin with. CD Project has to get the online component just right, and many single player developers have had a difficult time with that transition.

CDPR will likely patch the game over several months, it will get better over time, and the next game they put out will likely still be a 9+ rated game. I doubt they'll put that game out early.

Note: I used to spend a lot of time on VG analysis. Up to 25-40% when I was on the SS. Now it is probably <10%. I have not played Cyberpunk 2077. I don’t play a lot of games in general at this stage in my life but I do try to keep up with gaming news through various outlets.