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The upcoming change in normals (to be officialer in springish) swaps the 1980s for the 2010s to marry to the 1990s and 2000s. In this here thread, we're gonna deconstruct for various parts of the country, and various seasons, what we're trading in, and getting back. 1/dozens
So here we go, just an example, this is what Cleveland County, Oklahoma is giving and getting for January in this decadally-held climate data exchange. The gray curve is the 1980s, the decade dropping out of "normal" - the red curve is the 2010s, the newcomer decade. 2/oodles
[same graphic as before]
The red curve to the right of the gray curve: Norman, OK had a warmer 2010s than 1980s in January, and will bring a warmer January "normal" for Norman. Tailbars depict the hot/cold 5% of obs in the 1980s and how often they happened this decade . 3/scads
![[same graphic as before]The red curve to the right of the gray curve: Norman, OK had a warmer 2010s than 1980s in January, and will bring a warmer January "normal" for Norman. Tailbars depict the hot/cold 5% of obs in the 1980s and how often they happened this decade . 3/scads](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqmHclKVgAAo1Jb.jpg "[same graphic as before]The red curve to the right of the gray curve: Norman, OK had a warmer 2010s than 1980s in January, and will bring a warmer January \"normal\" for Norman. Tailbars depict the hot/cold 5% of obs in the 1980s and how often they happened this decade . 3/scads")
The red curve to the right of the gray curve: Norman, OK had a warmer 2010s than 1980s in January, and will bring a warmer January "normal" for Norman. Tailbars depict the hot/cold 5% of obs in the 1980s and how often they happened this decade . 3/scads
That's all interesting but surely you want something more topical than "temperatures changed, bringing new normals as the sands of time drift"
(btw, these graphs which look like moving dunes are called Shisr plots, commemorating a great lost city overtaken by sand). 4/plethora
(btw, these graphs which look like moving dunes are called Shisr plots, commemorating a great lost city overtaken by sand). 4/plethora
So, say you're into the almond crop in the Cali Valley. An important crop, right? Important enough to import enough bees, please, to romance the trees. (Jeez.) Anyway, almonds, like lots of orchard crops, rely on chilling hours for healthy buds and yields. 5/bushel
Nov through mid-Jan is the period important to almonds. Here's what gets traded re: the new normals for Fresno for that calendar stretch. It's hella different: much of the "old" decade rests below 45F (an important threshold for this crop) w/ the new on the warm side. 6/loads
This is average daily temperature, of course, and chilling hours are in, well, hours. But its an important view into a real-world impact implicit and buried within "wow, look how them normals are changing!" ... 7/trucksful
[this thread to be expanded in coming days]
Closer to home ... we grow a bunch of apples here in Western NC. Comparing apples and almonds is like comparing ... well, nevermind. They both are sensitive to chilling hours. Henderson County's the top of the bushel in productivity, and here's its winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) 8/lots
I won't pretend to be an apple expert (I'm a wheat and cattle fella, myself), but you know who is? Your county extension agent. They may be able to explain better why this is important to an important local crop. 9/multiple
