Wanted to give some thoughts again on the 1/5 runoff. VIX is slightly up for the day (~23), which is likely due to OPEX effects rather than any systemic market shake (VIX puts being closed basically). That said, Tuesday is the runoff election. My money is personally on a red Mon.

With some increase in volatility, given the vol compression that has. defined Dec so far and the market pricing in a close race. My thinking here is that any short vol strategy ending on Wed will likely print, as it seems the market isn't minding a potential dem sen

or at least not pricing it in yet. I think Tuesday will largely be quiet as we saw on Nov 2 as well. If VIX tends above 25 on Monday (let's hope right?) we should potentially see a small leg up post election. I'm still banking on a VIX mean around 20 now, but it's possible

it ends up dipping below 20 (even temporarily), in which case we should see another leg up regardless just from vanna. Will consider UVXY puts/SPY calls on Monday close or something.