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Ten Things I got wrong in 2020
1
Thought investigation downing of UKR airliner would drag on long time, that US would use it to isolate Iran internationally. But took only few days for Iran to say accident. I used 'MH17' as mental model but no particularly good reason to do that
1
Thought investigation downing of UKR airliner would drag on long time, that US would use it to isolate Iran internationally. But took only few days for Iran to say accident. I used 'MH17' as mental model but no particularly good reason to do that
(Also thought downing was maybe not Iran's fault but result of US electronic warfare to sabotage Iran's air defenses. Despite Iran's admission, I still think this is *possible*: US has capabilities, track record of sabotage, & not in Iran's interest to admit this vulnerability)
Election
2
Overestimated Biden's cognitive decline. While Covid helped him (it allowed him to campaign from his basement, greatly reducing risk of embarrassing moments in public) & media greatly shielded him, he did get thru debates w/ Bernie & Trump appearing more or less lucid.
2
Overestimated Biden's cognitive decline. While Covid helped him (it allowed him to campaign from his basement, greatly reducing risk of embarrassing moments in public) & media greatly shielded him, he did get thru debates w/ Bernie & Trump appearing more or less lucid.
3
On election night, at around 1am, when the betting markets had Trump at (IIRC) close to 90%, I thought Trump had won.
On election night, at around 1am, when the betting markets had Trump at (IIRC) close to 90%, I thought Trump had won.
4
Didn't expect Tulsi to endorse Biden, or to do it so enthusiastically anyway. Tulsi always seemed genuine, sincere & open but when @jimmy_dore asked her abt it she seemed like another person: Evasive, cold, weird. Didn't expect that. (from about 4m45s)
Didn't expect Tulsi to endorse Biden, or to do it so enthusiastically anyway. Tulsi always seemed genuine, sincere & open but when @jimmy_dore asked her abt it she seemed like another person: Evasive, cold, weird. Didn't expect that. (from about 4m45s)
Covid
5
Overestimated effectiveness masks. In March/April, looking at eg S Korea, Japan & esp Czechia it seemed likely universal mask use could contain pandemic. Since then many countries/states with v high mask use also had v high number of positive tests, so this appears false.
5
Overestimated effectiveness masks. In March/April, looking at eg S Korea, Japan & esp Czechia it seemed likely universal mask use could contain pandemic. Since then many countries/states with v high mask use also had v high number of positive tests, so this appears false.
6
Didn't expect so many Covid deaths. I'd expected maybe max 2-3 times as many as in bad flu season. >300,000 in US is way beyond that.
OTOH, Covid deaths are counted so liberally this number may be *greatly* inflated. Moreover, lockdown may have contributed even to Covid deaths
Didn't expect so many Covid deaths. I'd expected maybe max 2-3 times as many as in bad flu season. >300,000 in US is way beyond that.
OTOH, Covid deaths are counted so liberally this number may be *greatly* inflated. Moreover, lockdown may have contributed even to Covid deaths
Lockdown
7
Never thought people would put up with the lockdown this long. I'd expected more protests, against the lockdown itself, and more indirectly, more social unrest as a result of the economic consequences of the lockdown. https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1241927796693372929?s=19
7
Never thought people would put up with the lockdown this long. I'd expected more protests, against the lockdown itself, and more indirectly, more social unrest as a result of the economic consequences of the lockdown. https://twitter.com/KoenSwinkels/status/1241927796693372929?s=19
8
Although there seems to be a lag in reporting and comprehensive data is not available yet, it looks like suicides did not go up as much as I thought they would as a result of the lockdown.
Although there seems to be a lag in reporting and comprehensive data is not available yet, it looks like suicides did not go up as much as I thought they would as a result of the lockdown.
9
Expected more downright weird, unexpected stuff to happen economically due to lockdown + macroeconomic measures. Record high unemployment AND record high stockmarkets at same time *was* one weirdness, but I'd expected more given unprecedented situation
https://kmswinkels.medium.com/covidonomics-what-will-the-covid-19-crisis-do-to-our-political-economy-13fa2b8844d0
Expected more downright weird, unexpected stuff to happen economically due to lockdown + macroeconomic measures. Record high unemployment AND record high stockmarkets at same time *was* one weirdness, but I'd expected more given unprecedented situation
https://kmswinkels.medium.com/covidonomics-what-will-the-covid-19-crisis-do-to-our-political-economy-13fa2b8844d0
Science
10
Never thought fields like epidemiology and immunology would be in such a sorry state, that there are so many basic issues (eg how is virus transmitted, seasonality, herd immunity) that the relevant experts don't know, or thought they knew but are wrong about.
10
Never thought fields like epidemiology and immunology would be in such a sorry state, that there are so many basic issues (eg how is virus transmitted, seasonality, herd immunity) that the relevant experts don't know, or thought they knew but are wrong about.
Feel free to add things you think I was wrong about.
