#COVID19ireland:
1620 cases; 12 deaths

Previous Thursdays:
24/12: 922
17/12: 484
10/12: 310
03/12: 183
26/11: 335

5-day average: 1278.6

7-day average: 1244.9
(Previous 7 days: 775.7)

14-day cases/100k: 296.7
(7 days ago: 166.0)

In hospital: 490
In ICU: 42
@VirginMediaNews

NEW: NPHET tells Govt that even if R is reduced to 1.4 from yesterday, case numbers will rise to 2000+ daily by Jan 9, and 3000 daily by Jan 23… by which point the number of cases in hospital would surpass 1000.

For context on that: that's double the 490 cases in hospital this lunchtime, and would amount to occupying almost EVERY spare public hospital bed in Ireland.

Yesterday morning, for example, there were 623 available beds across the public hospital system.

NPHET's latest letter (written yesterday, published today) says the full Level 5 ought to be maintained for six weeks, but even this "may not be sufficient to bring the disease under control and that additional measures may be required" if deterioration continues.

Of 77 suspected cases which were subjected to genomic sequencing, 7 were found to be the B.1.1.7 ('UK') variant of the virus.

The new South African strain has not been identified in Ireland yet; the only countries outside S.A. which has done so are the UK (2) and Finland (1).

[Comment: This seems to undermine the political claims that it's the new strain which has caused such a surge recently, rather than officially sanctioned socialising.

As of Tuesday, there were only 171 confirmed cases of that variant outside the UK, worldwide, 7 of them here.]

NPHET also wrote that schools "should reopen as planned"… but that "high and rising levels of community transmission will become a risk to the ongoing provision of education at primary and secondary level unless these levels of transmission can be addressed".

Tony Holohan's closing comments are that testing can no longer stop the spread.

"The role of testing changes considerably when disease transmission is at the level currently being experienced – and can no longer be expected to control the disease…

[ctd]

Holohan: "Everyone needs to behave as if they are close contacts and to restrict their movements by staying at home, except for essential purposes; it is only through the collective actions of everyone that we can hope to interrupt chains of transmission, prevent further spread".

Letter is here if you want to take a look: https://assets.gov.ie/117748/e3b13a2c-0668-40a9-94bf-8bc774395b63.pdf