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Conventional wisdom seems to be that playing a 4-4-2 diamond vs a system which relies upon fullbacks bombing forward may be unwise. This question/issue has obvious potential implications for Saturday's huge Celtic vs Rangers derby. I've tried to test this and my examination has
resulted in some interesting "results." First I want to state in advance that my analysis is not comprehensive and the scope of my "universe" is limited. I basically looked at a few prominent teams that deployed 4-3-3 as a major system, then look at what opponents played vs them,
and finally how 4-4-2 diamond faired when it was used.
My first observation is that conversational "wisdom" appears to be just that- very few teams appear to deploy 4-4-2 diamond vs the 4-3-3 for the teams I reviewed: Rangers, Liverpool, Man City, and some of Barcelona
My first observation is that conversational "wisdom" appears to be just that- very few teams appear to deploy 4-4-2 diamond vs the 4-3-3 for the teams I reviewed: Rangers, Liverpool, Man City, and some of Barcelona
prior to this season. For example, Rangers have faced it for 21 minutes so far this season in all competitions from what I can find. Last season they faced it in parts of 2 games for a total of 66 minutes.
Similarly, Liverpool have faced 4-4-2 diamond very little- zero this
Similarly, Liverpool have faced 4-4-2 diamond very little- zero this
season so far and just 6% of minutes last season in all competitions. This is where things get interesting- guess which teams deployed the shape as primary vs Liverpool? Brighton, Salzburg and Arsenal- all clubs who invest in analytics.
In fact, when I aggregate the npxG
In fact, when I aggregate the npxG
vs Liverpool when they have played 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2 diamond, it was 2.06 vs 1.85 per 90 minutes last season. Brighton actually outperformed 2.47 vs 2.22 over 100 minutes on July 8th in 3-1 defeat.
In the classic 4-3 Liverpool win over Salzburg in last season's Champions League
In the classic 4-3 Liverpool win over Salzburg in last season's Champions League
Salzburg deployed 4-4-2 diamond after starting the game in traditional 4-4-2 for 30 minutes. npxG for the 34 minutes in which Liverpool played 4-3-3 vs the diamond was 1.84 vs 1.49 in Salzburg's favor. Klopp actually changed to 4-2-3-1 to see the game out.
Interestingly, the 1
Interestingly, the 1
game in Europe in which Rangers have faced the diamond under Gerrard was vs Villarreal on November 8, 2018. Rangers switched to 4-2-3-1 after 22 minutes and 3 good scoring chances by Villarreal.
This is a trend I have noticed across this matchup- 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2 diamond, where
This is a trend I have noticed across this matchup- 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2 diamond, where
the team in 4-3-3 struggles and then changes shape.
I expanded my review to include 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-1-2, which have also become en vogue among analytics-heavy clubs. Guess what?!? Brighton deployed it this season in a 1-1 draw vs Liverpool with npxG of 1.65 vs 0.47 in their
I expanded my review to include 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-1-2, which have also become en vogue among analytics-heavy clubs. Guess what?!? Brighton deployed it this season in a 1-1 draw vs Liverpool with npxG of 1.65 vs 0.47 in their
favor, and Atalanta won 2-0 with 1.41 vs 0.22 npxG in their favor. Even in the 5-0 drubbing Atalanta suffered in the other group game vs Liverpool, npxG was 2.22 vs 1.12 to Liverpool.
Back to the 21 minutes Rangers have faced 4-4-2 diamond this season- it was at home to
Back to the 21 minutes Rangers have faced 4-4-2 diamond this season- it was at home to
Galatasaray in 2-1 win. Galatasaray played 4-1-4-1 vs Rangers' 4-3-3 for the 1st 73 minutes, when they switched to the diamond. Rangers switched to 4-5-1 after 5 minutes.
Obviously this is all high level and personnel and teams are all different. My next thread will look at
Obviously this is all high level and personnel and teams are all different. My next thread will look at
how Celtic's version of 4-4-2 diamond may match-up vs the Rangers. Whether 4-4-2 diamond or 3-4-2-1, overloading the midfield seems like it may be the sought after kryptonite for the narrow 4-3-3. Fullbacks be damned. End.
