Just like the week of Thanksgiving, initial claims came in under expectations, and down 120k from the previous week.

Given that this morning’s data includes the week of Christmas, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of this dip in initial claims being temporary.
During the week of Thanksgiving, initial claims (state + PUA, NSA) dropped by 150k. The next week, they went up by 370k.

Over the next two weeks, I think it’s likely we see a similar reversal.
Next week is Jobs Friday. We’ll get labor market data from November. Given what UI claims and COVID cases have looked like, combined with dropping temperatures and increased business closure orders, it probably won’t be pretty.
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