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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Pablo Lopez, SP
Miami #Marlins
24 years old (25 on 3/7/21)
Drafted: N/A; Int’l FA 2012 (Mariners)
Let’s get started...
( @AugustineMLB created visual 
)
2020 Stat Line:
11 G
57.1 IP
6-4
3.61 ERA
1.19 WHIP
3.09 FIP
3.73 xFIP
3.98 SIERA
24.6 K%
7.5 BB%
17.1 K-BB%
.227 AVG
.293 BABIP
0.63 HR/9
)2020 Stat Line:
11 G
57.1 IP
6-4
3.61 ERA
1.19 WHIP
3.09 FIP
3.73 xFIP
3.98 SIERA
24.6 K%
7.5 BB%
17.1 K-BB%
.227 AVG
.293 BABIP
0.63 HR/9
In 2019 Lopez showed flashes of brilliance but was unable to put it together over a full season, possibly due to a right shoulder strain suffered in June
Pre-injury:
4.23 ERA
3.57 FIP
17.5 K-BB%
Post-injury:
7.01 ERA
5.87 FIP
8.4 K-BB%
(Pre-injury includes 10er outing vs NYM)
Pre-injury:
4.23 ERA
3.57 FIP
17.5 K-BB%
Post-injury:
7.01 ERA
5.87 FIP
8.4 K-BB%
(Pre-injury includes 10er outing vs NYM)
Lopez carried his progress, injury free, into 2020.
The results led to QS in 9 of his 11 outings & career best metrics across the board.
He dominated thru Aug (2.10 ERA), giving up just one HR & never allowing over 2 ER in a start before surrendering 12 ER over 2 games in Sept.
The results led to QS in 9 of his 11 outings & career best metrics across the board.
He dominated thru Aug (2.10 ERA), giving up just one HR & never allowing over 2 ER in a start before surrendering 12 ER over 2 games in Sept.
That rough patch could have easily undone Lopez season.
Instead he recovered, allowing just 3 ER & 8 H across his final 3 games (17.1 IP) w/ 19 K.
Way to rebound.
But are these blowups a concern? What should we expect from Lopez in 2021?
Instead he recovered, allowing just 3 ER & 8 H across his final 3 games (17.1 IP) w/ 19 K.
Way to rebound.
But are these blowups a concern? What should we expect from Lopez in 2021?
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 19.3%
GB - 52.2%
FB - 28.6%
Pull - 41.6%
Middle - 31.1%
Opp - 27.3%
Hard - 28.6%
Med - 51.6%
Soft - 19.9%
Exit Velocity - 85.7 mph
Max EV - 110.3 mph
Barrel % - 4.3
LA - 6.7°
sd(LA) - 31.3°
DHH - 12.5%
xwOBAcon - .330
LD - 19.3%
GB - 52.2%
FB - 28.6%
Pull - 41.6%
Middle - 31.1%
Opp - 27.3%
Hard - 28.6%
Med - 51.6%
Soft - 19.9%
Exit Velocity - 85.7 mph
Max EV - 110.3 mph
Barrel % - 4.3
LA - 6.7°
sd(LA) - 31.3°
DHH - 12.5%
xwOBAcon - .330
Lopez is a master at creating weak contact using his change/sink to generate GB.
Decrease in Hard% ties closely to fastball useage (hint: it was less) which resulted in less HR.
HR/FB dropped 14.6
8.7%
Low in zone
Stay off heart of the plate
Contact management
Decrease in Hard% ties closely to fastball useage (hint: it was less) which resulted in less HR
.HR/FB dropped 14.6
8.7% Low in zone Stay off heart of the plate Contact management
All expected metrics support batted ball results Lopez carried in 2020 w/ a 3.28 xERA suggesting more was possible.
His .330 wOBAcon is mirrored by an identical .330 xwOBAcon.
What you see is what you get.
No flashy movement, but premier contact management through tunneling.
His .330 wOBAcon is mirrored by an identical .330 xwOBAcon.
What you see is what you get.
No flashy movement, but premier contact management through tunneling.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 12.1%
O-Swing: 35.1%
Z-Swing: 72.0%
O-Contact: 68.6%
Z-Contact: 81.1%
F-Strike: 59.6%
Zone: 40.8%
Lopez always had potential but never missed enough bats to take the next step.
As you can see above, that changed in 2020.
SwStr: 12.1%
O-Swing: 35.1%
Z-Swing: 72.0%
O-Contact: 68.6%
Z-Contact: 81.1%
F-Strike: 59.6%
Zone: 40.8%
Lopez always had potential but never missed enough bats to take the next step.
As you can see above, that changed in 2020.
An increase in O-Swing (swings outside K zone) & decrease in Z-Contact (contact within K zone) led to career best K% mostly due Zone% dropping 44.2 to 40.8.
(Why was this effective? We will discuss that soon.)
But it also led to a career worst BB%, but you take that trade off.
(Why was this effective? We will discuss that soon.)
But it also led to a career worst BB%, but you take that trade off.
Lopez K-BB% jumped from 14.5 to 17.1%.
That is the magic metric you want to look at but here is a summary of positive takeaways:
- Reduced contact within the zone
- Higher Swing%
- Higher O-Swing%/Chase%
- Higher SwStr%
- Lower Zone%
This is the IDEAL metric profile for a SP
That is the magic metric you want to look at but here is a summary of positive takeaways:
- Reduced contact within the zone
- Higher Swing%
- Higher O-Swing%/Chase%
- Higher SwStr%
- Lower Zone%
This is the IDEAL metric profile for a SP
So did this happen by accident? No.
Lopez made significant changes to his plan of attack & pitch mix
2019:
42.4% 4-Seam
22.0% Change
19.0% Curve
16.0% Sinker
2020:
32.2% 4-Seam
29.9% Change
22.5% Sinker
8.4.% Cutter
7.0% Curve
4-Seam
Change
Sinker
Cutter
Curve
Lopez made significant changes to his plan of attack & pitch mix
2019:
42.4% 4-Seam
22.0% Change
19.0% Curve
16.0% Sinker
2020:
32.2% 4-Seam
29.9% Change
22.5% Sinker
8.4.% Cutter
7.0% Curve
4-Seam
Change
Sinker
Cutter
Curve
Like many SP, Lopez relies on his 4-Seam to setup other pitches.
Also like many SP, it is hardly his best pitch w/ a 7.9 SwStr% & 19.9 K%.
The biggest issue was a lack in control on the rise which led to hard contact.
Notice in the chart below 2020 vs 2019
Also like many SP, it is hardly his best pitch w/ a 7.9 SwStr% & 19.9 K%.
The biggest issue was a lack in control on the rise which led to hard contact.
Notice in the chart below 2020 vs 2019
In 2020 Lopez threw nearly 10% less 4-Seam & incorporated the ones he did throw w/ purpose.
Zone% 4%
Z-Contact 10%
Most importantly K% jumped 19.9 to 32.6% (SwStr 7.9 to 13.8)
It’s amazing what a proper game plan can do for a fastball. Change pace/speed.
Zone%
4%Z-Contact
10%Most importantly K% jumped 19.9 to 32.6% (SwStr 7.9 to 13.8)
It’s amazing what a proper game plan can do for a fastball. Change pace/speed.
That new game plan was built around the relationship between the changeup & sinker.
First the change up, which was already an amazing pitch in 2019:
25% K rate
57.1% GB
42.4% O-Swing
78.4% Z-Cont
17.2% SwStr
77 wRC+
So why change it? For one reason...
Throw it MORE.
First the change up, which was already an amazing pitch in 2019:
25% K rate
57.1% GB
42.4% O-Swing
78.4% Z-Cont
17.2% SwStr
77 wRC+
So why change it? For one reason...
Throw it MORE.
Lopez change has both above avg vertical/horizontal movement, starting in the middle of the plate and breaking in to RHH.
It’s a nasty pitch that he now dropped the Zone% on forcing hitters to chase low resulting in an increase in K% (2532.5) & a jump in GB% (57.163.3)
It’s a nasty pitch that he now dropped the Zone% on forcing hitters to chase low resulting in an increase in K% (25
32.5) & a jump in GB% (57.163.3)
The 3rd pitch that made Lopez so dangerous is the sinker, which pairs ‘perfectly’ w/ his change.
Why? They move the SAME.
This makes it very difficult for the hitter to pick up.
Add in that one is coming in at 87 & the other at over 93? Nightmare.
Why? They move the SAME.
This makes it very difficult for the hitter to pick up.
Add in that one is coming in at 87 & the other at over 93? Nightmare.
Lopez curveball took a backseat in 2020 & rightfully so.
Despite generating a 42.9 K%, this thing gets smacked around w/ over a 90% Z-Cont the last 2 seasons (100% in 2020)
wRC+ climbed to 167 w/ a .714 SLG & he often lacked feel for the pitch.
Should be RHH ONLY or be dropped
Despite generating a 42.9 K%, this thing gets smacked around w/ over a 90% Z-Cont the last 2 seasons (100% in 2020)
wRC+ climbed to 167 w/ a .714 SLG & he often lacked feel for the pitch.
Should be RHH ONLY or be dropped
Lopez DID add a cutter (8.4%) that shows promise against LHH.
Not much swing & miss (5.9 K%, 20.7% O-Swing) but did generate a 53.3% GB.
If he can stay out of the zone more (61.3%) it could be a useful weapon. (Credit @AlexFast8 for gif)
Not much swing & miss (5.9 K%, 20.7% O-Swing) but did generate a 53.3% GB.
If he can stay out of the zone more (61.3%) it could be a useful weapon. (Credit @AlexFast8 for gif)
Lopez was quoted last offseason that he was concentrating on hand speed & release point in order to improve tunneling.
He has the tools to have a devastating arsenal that plays off each other, but there may be an issue halting further K growth.
Walks.
He has the tools to have a devastating arsenal that plays off each other, but there may be an issue halting further K growth.
Walks.
It’s true that Lopez 4-Seam was the main culprit for BB%, but he also traded in a ton of Zone% w/ sinker/change to gain K% growth.
What if hitters decide to be more patient?
Without curve/cutter taking a step forward it may force Pablo into the zone more. Contact = less K
What if hitters decide to be more patient?
Without curve/cutter taking a step forward it may force Pablo into the zone more. Contact = less K
Lopez dK% (deserved) was 2.2 points lower than his K%, but his BB% was also 1.8 points above his dBB%.
So even steven? Not quite, but it’s important to know that even though there is a blueprint to ace, there is also a chance to revert backwards.
Color me optimistic though.
So even steven? Not quite, but it’s important to know that even though there is a blueprint to ace, there is also a chance to revert backwards.
Color me optimistic though.
Bottom line:
Lopez made positive pitch mix adjustments & has the tools to further improve.
But there is risk he falls further back into soft contact than strikeouts like Max Fried.
But he could also become a high K GB machine like Luis Castillo.
IP should be an asset though.
Lopez made positive pitch mix adjustments & has the tools to further improve.
But there is risk he falls further back into soft contact than strikeouts like Max Fried.
But he could also become a high K GB machine like Luis Castillo.
IP should be an asset though.
Lopez current ADP in @TheNFBC DC leagues is 116.78 as the SP37.
He is everything that you want Jose Berrios to be 30 picks later, but w/ a chance to achieve Zac Gallen production (38.94)
Just be prepared that the 2020 Aaron Civale card is also in the deck.
He is everything that you want Jose Berrios to be 30 picks later, but w/ a chance to achieve Zac Gallen production (38.94)
Just be prepared that the 2020 Aaron Civale card is also in the deck.
Why to expect from Pablo Lopez in 2021:
160 IP
3.60 ERA
1.22 WHIP
24.8% K Rate
7.0% BB Rate
There is room for a true breakout to occur, but to count on it would be unwise.
Expect new arsenal mix to carry a safe floor w/ a chance for K% to jump if secondaries become consistent.
160 IP
3.60 ERA
1.22 WHIP
24.8% K Rate
7.0% BB Rate
There is room for a true breakout to occur, but to count on it would be unwise.
Expect new arsenal mix to carry a safe floor w/ a chance for K% to jump if secondaries become consistent.
@Marlins @fishstripes @MarlinManiac @J_McPherson1126 @DuseReport @FernandezAndreC @CraigMish @jorgeebro @marlinsminors
There is an entire thread on Pablo Lopez above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1344600771439042561
There is an entire thread on Pablo Lopez above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1344600771439042561
