#Level5 #Covid19 there’s ~no evidence~ 3rd wave is due to ‘increased socialisation’ & ‘people not following rules’. NPHET said same about 2nd wave

‘Bad behaviour’ is inferred by NPHET as case numbers are far higher than its model predicts

Could the problem be NPHET’s model? 1/
HIQA advice to NPHET:

‘transmission of #Covid19 is potentially highly over-dispersed

*a minority of infected individuals are responsible for majority of transmissions*

infection appears to spread in clusters’

NPHET don’t model a disease of clusters 2/
HIQA (Nov 2020):
‘greater understanding of WHERE & WHEN clusters occur may be key to controlling the pandemic’

‘main factors which increase transmission risk:
*indoor environments
*crowded environments
*prolonged & intense contact with others

[thread on cluster spread..] 3/ https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1318215779129741313
indoor conditions WHERE #Covid19 clusters happen are now known by chemists, physicists, environmental scientists, architects & engineers

‘Super-spread’ evidence (pubs/restaurants/homes/transport, care homes/meat plants etc) is consistent with this science

[thread in pubs..] 4/ https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1330073418801311745
NPHET doesn’t model clusters it models averages (hence ‘halve your contacts’)

‘model [is] driven by dynamics of viral transmission.. in particular reproduction number (R), average number of infections caused from each new case’

NPHET/IEMAG tech notes 5/ https://assets.gov.ie/74593/a4951e8c993e4f4d96997815c7380851.pdf
So #Covid19 spreads indoors, & is predominantly caught by being inhaled (not from surfaces)

In certain conditions many people can be infected in a short time (<5mins in prison, USA) & at a distance (6m restaurant, S Korea & 8m meat plant, Germany)

Spread is *environmental* 6/
#Covid19 spread indoors is also a factor of:
*outdoor environment (climate/season/weather/wind/pollution etc)

*buildings (location/occupancy/layout/activity/ventilation/heating, operation/maintenance etc)

NPHET doesn’t model seasonal factors, outdoor or indoor environments 7/
International research explains seasonal rise in #Covid19, & reasons for cold weather 2nd & 3rd waves

*explained here (22 mins) & @johnwenger9 (2 mins) on aerosols & chemistry

*thread on increased virus risk in cold weather environmental conditions 8/ https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1322465921403965440
NPHET’s own data indicates that #Covid19 is a disease of ‘clusters’ & that it is environmental & seasonal

*2/3 of ~all~ workplace outbreak cases in <150 buildings (meat/poultry/fish plants)

*1/2 of ~all~ deaths in <400 buildings (nursing/care homes) 9/
Is it time to interrogate NPHET model?

It didn’t predict:
*May/Jun warm weather drop
*Jul/Aug meat plants risk
*Sept/Oct cold weather rise
*Oct/Nov stalled Level 5
*Dec pubs/restaurants& weather risk

because NPHET doesn’t model seasons, clusters or high-risk buildings /10
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