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So. About that Darvish trade. Unfortunately, most of the video on the four prospects is dated, as are most of the available scouting reports, and we have no really useful stats. So we're reduced to scouting the scouting reports, and plenty of folks have done that.
It is an intriguing bunch. Right now I'm probably the most interested by Santana, and probably the most concerned by Caissie (but that's because I have almost Pavlovian response to 'power projection' and 'contact issues' - I run away).
But here's the thing. I still don't think this trade makes any sense for the Cubs.
And because it is what I do, I'm going to do this with a food analogy. But since hot dogs are forever linked to the Chapman debacle, I'll switch to pizza.
And because it is what I do, I'm going to do this with a food analogy. But since hot dogs are forever linked to the Chapman debacle, I'll switch to pizza.
Say you've got $50 to spend, and you want pizza. You have some options.
You could order the biggest, best, hottest, ready-to-eat-est pizza you can imagine. That'll cost you... $50!
Or you can order two lesser, but still pretty darn good pizzas.
You could order the biggest, best, hottest, ready-to-eat-est pizza you can imagine. That'll cost you... $50!
Or you can order two lesser, but still pretty darn good pizzas.
Or, if you are patient, you can get that uber-pizza, but in a take-and-bake form. You get as good a pizza, but later on AND you save some cash (for... I don't know... breadsticks or something).
But the Padres closed door number one, and probably door number two.
But the Padres closed door number one, and probably door number two.
I think most of us were expecting at least one take-and-bake style prospect, someone who could contribute fast... and the Cubs punted on that too.
Instead, they spent $50 on raw ingredients. Lots of raw ingredients. And they bet on their own ability to bake pizza.
Instead, they spent $50 on raw ingredients. Lots of raw ingredients. And they bet on their own ability to bake pizza.
If it works, they'll get a lot of pizza for the $50.
But here's the problem. I feel like the only got about $35 worth of ingredients for their $50. For a guy like Darvish, I can't see this return as anything but light.
But here's the problem. I feel like the only got about $35 worth of ingredients for their $50. For a guy like Darvish, I can't see this return as anything but light.
That's not to say the pizzas won't be good - they might be amazing pizzas.
But the idea that spending $50 on $35 of ingredients is justified if you turn those ingredients into great pizzas is ludicrous.
You can, and should, absolutely judge the value of a trade in real time.
But the idea that spending $50 on $35 of ingredients is justified if you turn those ingredients into great pizzas is ludicrous.
You can, and should, absolutely judge the value of a trade in real time.
Real time is the only time to judge the value, because the relative value of the players in the trade is constantly changing.
Getting a poor return now doesn't stop being a poor return if those players turn into Hall of Famers. It is still a poor return at the time of the deal
Getting a poor return now doesn't stop being a poor return if those players turn into Hall of Famers. It is still a poor return at the time of the deal
In other words, no matter how good the pizzas turn out to be, you still overpaid for the ingredients.
And I strongly suspect the Cubs seriously overpaid. Like... shopping at Whole Foods with loan they took out from a payday lender kind of overpaid.
And I strongly suspect the Cubs seriously overpaid. Like... shopping at Whole Foods with loan they took out from a payday lender kind of overpaid.
The question is why.
And the answer, I suspect, is that Hoyer wasn't entirely honest.
The Cubs are probably under sever financial restrictions, he probably did have to make a deal to shed payroll, and the rest of the leage probably knew it.
And the answer, I suspect, is that Hoyer wasn't entirely honest.
The Cubs are probably under sever financial restrictions, he probably did have to make a deal to shed payroll, and the rest of the leage probably knew it.
And as we saw in nearly every single bullpen reinforcement trade over the past four years, the Cubs front office is not good at getting maximum value when they are trading with their backs against the wall. The rest of the league eats them alive. And then bills them for it.
Compared to the rest of the league, the Cubs seem almost uniquely bad in dealing when they are in a 'must make a move' mind set.
So, hopefully dealing Darvish for some sacks of flour and premium cheeses gets their backs away from the wall.
So, hopefully dealing Darvish for some sacks of flour and premium cheeses gets their backs away from the wall.
When they have time to work and aren't under (often self imposed) emergencies, they seem to do better. So if the Darvish deal gets the financial pressure off, maybe we'll see them drive a better bargain in the rest of the trades.
And yes, I think there will be trades.
Davies isn't a bad pitcher. But I don't see him as the No. 2 guy on a playoff rotation. I don't see a realistic No. 2 in free agency, and I certainly don't see him on the roster.
If they are really going to compete, they need deals.
Davies isn't a bad pitcher. But I don't see him as the No. 2 guy on a playoff rotation. I don't see a realistic No. 2 in free agency, and I certainly don't see him on the roster.
If they are really going to compete, they need deals.
More likely, I suspect, is they trade away virtually everyone who hasn't signed an extension and see if they can luck their way into a division title in what may well be a laughably bad division.
And then collapse in historic fashion in the playoffs.
And then collapse in historic fashion in the playoffs.
But at least I can say the Cubs got some really darn good pizza ingredients. And they have invested in new chefs and new ovens, so all the pieces are in play to make some really good pizza.
Just don't get hungry until 2024 or so.
Just don't get hungry until 2024 or so.
