Read on Twitter
1/x No loooong treatise tonight. 1 important observation today....& just 1 important item to watch for tomorrow: OBSERVATION: for the Nth day,despite earlier attempts to do something meaningful in SPX, we once again mean reverted to unchanged. This is not surprising, as Ivol https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1344193413843996672
2/x compression continues to be the overwhelming dominant force. What is notable is how dominant it has become @ this point...as can be seen through the underlying constituents, true idiosyncratic risk is still very much alive. The last 2 days are a great example. The Russell had
3/x an almost -2% day (-2.3% min) followed by an almost +1% (+1.5% max). But in the end all roads lead to Rome...So dispersion continues to be the trade, & all constituents are ultimately tethered flailing to & fro hopelessly attempting to sway the 10k lb 
...IF THERE IS 1 THING
...IF THERE IS 1 THING
4/xTHAT GIVES ME GREAT PAUSE about my prediction of a potential decline in the coming window of risk 1/6-1/15, itâs that in order for it to come to pass, this market must wage war with this & break free, if itâs to transpire...I know better than most how powerful this animal
& break free, if itâs to transpire...I know better than most how powerful this animal
5/x can be. & I would be lying if I didnât have my concerns. This scale of Vol compression is single handedly forcing me to dial back my conviction in this part of my thesis...Price is truth & the closer I look, the name of that Gorilla is Gary...Inthe face of these facts,we will
6/x not be dogmatic. Eyes wide open we will walk through this important coming 1.5 weeks, knowing that a Vanna & seasonal window of weakness is quickly approaching, yet Ivol compression may be strong enough to tether this market through this difficult window regardless. What
7/x makes me even more concerned is the 1 IMPORTANT ITEM for tomorrow I mentioned: despite how oversupplied Vol markets are currently, weâre about to get another tidal wave of index Ivol supply tomorrow, as some well known massive structured Ivol trades hit the market @ EOQ into
8/8 an illiquid & oversupplied tape heading into a long weekend, whichâll only serve to pump more steroids into the veins of the beast, likely forcing us captive, regardless of news +other positioning. The only path free seems to be higher than lower, as mentioned. Good luck!
