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To the epidemiologists, defending Oster I honestly ask – would you be comfortable framing things the way Oster does? Discussing schools, would you say people are “overreacting” or say “these numbers are not zero, which for some people means the numbers are not good enough.” https://twitter.com/ProfEmilyOster/status/1344077557159882752
Seriously, would you entitle an article “schools aren’t superspreaders"? Would you employ red herrings like “One might argue, again, that any risk is too great, and that schools must be completely safe before local governments move to reopen them.” Italics are hers.
Would you use a dismissive tone when talking about the legitimate concerns of parents and teachers?
Would you write an opinion piece pointing out "trends" in "states" that there is a 0.14% infection rate in "schools" based of a dataset of 200k students (self-reported by their DISTRICTS)?
Would you collate reported cases across 47 states to calculate a 0.17% infection rate, without disclosing your denominator?
And when you search and find that Emily Oster has gone viral in the school opening community and is often the ONLY source cited in the media, would you not have questions that perhaps, somewhere, she has strayed from a purely academic approach?
I get the feeling that folks drop into this convo, read Oster’s footnoted “limitations,” look at her credentials, and step out. Yet, economists don’t go viral for no reason. Teachers do not feel derided by her for no reason.
Oster routinely wades into debates of life and death seriousness. With tremendous hubris & overconfidence. She is dismissive and overstates her findings. And it is a trend in her career. Does it not alarm you that folks in AAP have compared her approach to that of anti-vaxxers?
Maybe it is time to see that Oster has a tendency for oversimplification and derision. That these are professional blindspots that many of the epidemiologists coming to her defense are very careful to avoid.
The most infuriating part has been the downplaying of her impact. Look at any NYT education article, you will see a series of circular references to her Atlantic piece. She has cult-like status with pregnant women. Every single person in my friendship group has cited her to me.
You are kidding yourselves if you do not recognize the excesses of an economist with a cult following. Oster is not the devil. She is simply an economist who overstretches and who no one bothers to check.
