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With a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) forecast for the Northern Hemisphere here's a look back at our paper on observed relationships between SSWs and European extremes https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030480
In this paper we ( @DrAHButler @DrJucker @Nick_O_Earl, Irina Rudeva and myself) found that on average temperatures are cooler for much of Europe before SSWs than afterwards (top row average minimum T, bottom average minimum T), but….
The coldest nights (top row) and days (bottom row) tend to be colder after an SSW than before. While this pattern varies a lot between events, statistically it is more likely that cold snaps will be colder than normal over Northern Europe in Jan + Feb 2021
Finally, the Beast from the East, which followed the 2018 SSW, was linked with colder daytime temperatures (bottom row) in NW Europe than any other SSW since 1979. Less intense cold waves than in 2018 are normally seen after SSWs
