Another article that incorrectly links melting ice to increasing oil & gas development and an economic "race" in the #Arctic, this time from otherwise reputable @DiscoverMag . This boom is not actually happening, for many reasons. /1 https://twitter.com/CanGeographers/status/1344121134472515584

There is an idea that melting sea ice makes everything accessible in the Arctic. The ice is changing, but it is still very difficult to navigate in with new chunks of ice & changing patterns, & in the dark months sea ice accumulates - so there will be no "ice free" in winter. /2

But transportation is only one aspect of resource economics. The Arctic is still very expensive bc of distance to market, lack of labour and infrastructure, extreme conditions, and high regulatory burdens. And climate change makes many things harder, not easier. /3

But of course the most important factor is commodity prices, which as we all know are poor right now, especially for oil. Very hard to see Arctic oil competing with e.g. oil sands and shale on price/profitability in the foreseeable future. /4

There's an idea that there is or will soon be an Arctic oil boom. Let's look at the facts: 1) Canada has not had offshore oil & gas drilling in Beaufort Sea for 20 years. And currently has a moratorium. Very limited geological prospects at any rate. /5

2) Greenland has had no drilling and only has one active offshore license ATM. There was some exploration in the past decade, which GL encouraged as a strategy to reduce dependence on Denmark, but nothing came of it. /6

Norwegian oil production has plateaued since 2000. At any rate almost all production is in Northern Sea (67 fields) and Norwegian Sea (20 fields) with only 2 fields in the "Arctic" Barents Sea. Also remember most of Barents Sea is ice free bc of warm currents. /7

Alaska oil production has been in decline since the 1980s. /8

This leaves Russia. Russia has indeed been investing heavily in Arctic offshore LNG production, headed for Asian markets. This largely displaces coal - so a win for emissions reductions.
There is only one Russian Arctic offshore oil platform, Prirazlomnaya. /9

Lots of investment banks have come out this year to say they won't fund Arctic* o & g investment. This is performative and easy to say bc there isn't a good market case for Arctic o & g at current prices anyway. /10

*Also lots of caveats on how they define "Arctic" which leaves loopholes for financing the areas where investment makes the most sense anyway. /11

At any rate: There is nothing inherently worse about Arctic oil & gas if the problem is planetary level emissions. People just don't like the idea of it bc they imagine the Arctic as pristine & exotic, not as a place where people live & work and need and deserve development. /12

But wait there's more! No Arctic boom in minerals either, again bc of high costs and low prices. In the past year mining exploration expenditures dropped by about 50% in the Canadian territories, compared to 2% in the provinces. /13

Tl;dr:
There is no Arctic boom due to climate change because melting sea ice is only one small piece of the economic puzzle. /14