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@CrisisGroup’s 10 Conflicts to Watch is out today in @ForeignPolicy and for the first time a transnational risk made our annual list: rising insecurity related to climate change. Here’s why that’s big news... https://twitter.com/Rob_Malley/status/1344263528161669120
@IPCC_CH projects climate hazards will intensify in coming decades unless we quickly curb carbon emissions. Already, millions of people in fragile countries are experiencing record heat waves, extreme and irregular precipitation, and rising sea levels.
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
All this could fuel instability: for example, by exacerbating food insecurity, water scarcity, and resource competition and by leading more people to flee their homes: https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/climate-change-shaping-future-conflict
But as @busbyj2 and others have noted, the relationship between climate and conflict is neither simple nor linear: https://www.ssrc.org/publications/view/the-field-of-climate-and-security-a-scan-of-the-literature/
In short, the impact of climate change depends on how states are governed, and if/how we peacefully regulate access to resources. Climate matters when it comes to war and peace, but the politics and policies surrounding climate matter even more. Enter @CrisisGroup’s analysts…
In northern Nigeria, @NnamdiObasi finds frequent droughts have intensified fighting between herders and farmers over dwindling resources, requiring federal & state governments to do more to facilitate peaceful settlements and reform livestock production: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/288-violence-nigerias-north-west-rolling-back-mayhem
Climate change can also increase tensions between countries. @wdavison10 shows how Egypt and Ethiopia have traded threats of military action over the GERD, partly due to Cairo’s fears the dam will exacerbate already serious water scarcity: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/271-bridging-gap-nile-waters-dispute
Climate adaptation efforts can also backfire. In the Central Sahel, @IbrahimYahayaIb and @jhjezequel document how drilled wells and agricultural programs attracted non-native farmers, stirring tensions with local nomadic herders: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/b154-le-sahel-central-theatre-des-nouvelles-guerres-climatiques
For now, Africa arguably sees the worst climate-related conflict risks and @EroComfort @DinoMahtani and @RinaldoD1 have made sure that we’re on the case. But parts of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East face similar dangers, and we will keep expanding our coverage.
There is some cause for optimism. The new U.S. administration has put the climate crisis atop its agenda, and Biden has called for faster action to mitigate associated risks of instability: https://buildbackbetter.gov/priorities/climate-change/
A few months ago, @Rob_Malley and I laid out in @ForeignAffairs how best to approach this difficult task: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ethiopia/2020-09-28/climate-change-doesnt-have-stoke-conflict
PS - you can keep track of @CrisisGroup’s ongoing analysis of climate change and conflict issues here: https://www.crisisgroup.org/climate
