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There seems to be a widespread assumption that a post-Christmas surge in Covid-19 cases is inevitable. Similar claims were widely made ahead of the US Thanksgiving weekend, which was much less regulated than Christmas here. It is worth looking at what actually happened. (1/7)
US data is difficult because of the decentralised system. Reuters publish an aggregated daily update of reported cases. https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/index.html (2/7)
There is a reporting blip for the weekend itself and cases continue to increase at roughly the same rate as before. When we get to the point at which new infections should be appearing, the curve actually flattens off until we run into Christmas and new reporting issues. (3/7)
We should not assume that the UK will follow the same path. Equally we should not talk ourselves into a panic by assuming that it won't. (4/7)
There is also a need to tease out the relationship between deaths and hospitalizations, which seems to have changed since the spring. This may reflect better treatment, although the rate of hospital-acquired infection is a concern. (5/7)
An alternative explanation might be that the threshold for admission has been lowered, not as a conscious act by any individual but as a result of myriad decisions in primary and emergency care. Are hospitals being asked to admit patients who could be managed at home? (6/7)
None of this is to dismiss the real distress shown by many hospital staff. But it is to remind ourselves of some basic social science. They are seeing a biased sample of patients and admission rates do fluctuate for organizational rather than clinical reasons. (7/7)
