I'm seeing some interesting threads about how much ARCs and social media posts, especially bookstagram stuff, help with book sales, and I don't want to KoolAid Man my way into those discussions, so I'll thread here on my own timeline. Tl;dr ... it depends, and it's complicated.

There are multiple vectors that influence how effective these marketing strategies are: how "good" the book is is one major factor, and by good, I mean in the eye of the reader: cracky, can't-put-it-down, etc. High-concept books tend to benefit more from social proof on release.

This is one reason why, IMO, high-concept debut books get more organic buzz than later books, because we're always thrilled when a writer nails it on the first attempt. It's genuinely exciting.

I am not, generally speaking, an author who writes high-concept buzzy books. I have, though, and the difference is palpable.

I think until you've experienced both kinds of launches, it's harder to self-analyze.

This isn't to say that ARCs and social media engagement doesn't work for other books, they do, but they don't IN THE SAME WAY, and we often set our expectations sky high. Managing those expectations and playing a long game is another way to use those same tools.

So there's baseline social proof, and there's buzz-y social proof. Don't underestimate the value of baseline social proof!

ARCs, for example, can give any book enough reviews to not look bare, and populate all the various sites w/ the types of honest reviews that help readers.

And down the road, those reviews will help your book get discounted promo, like a BookBub featured deal or retailer promotion. So especially for a first in series, ARC distribution can pay off in more ways than just release.

Which brings us to another vector: what your catalogue looks like, how it funnels, and if you're set up to capture all the readers that promotion might reach.

All the buzz in the world doesn't stop a book from eventually falling to backlist.

So on the bookstagram side of things, encouraging and supporting fandom behaviour (even if it's just a handful of readers!) can, over time, build a depth of social proof you can forever draw on as you build a catalogue of similar content.

I like to use the analogy of building a snowball, which is a frustrating experience at first. Snow doesn't always like to pack together, and even when it's the right kind of snow, the first attempt is small and irregular. It takes many, many layers to build up a good one.

This is the most important thing to remember when you try to depend on observational data for assessing what works: authors that look like they have their shit together, that seem to get a lot of buzz...that comes with practice.

Some of the most effective indie debuts have been book bloggers! Some of the most effective trad publishing debuts have been editors! See how being an insider on the business side really helps?

And the exact same strategy doesn't always work the same way twice, even for the same author. Sometimes it does, though, for a good long while, and it can feel like the sky is falling when it stops working...but the same foundational skills work to start over again.

Off the line hot book sales are about the packaging (cover, blurb, hook, author name if there's a track record) and visibility (ad spend usually, sometimes early buzz, fan swell if you have a newsletter/active following).

Perennial book sales, though, backlist book sales, those are about the strength of a catalogue and appropriately chosen discounted sales.

It's not as sexy to focus on catalogue building and backlist sales first, but it can build your business knowledge to the point where you are more confident to gamble on a high-concept release.

Sixteen tweets, and that barely scrapes the surface of what I think are the complicated factors about whether or not a big ARC push will generate enough social proof to make a difference.

Ten word answers.

There have been many points in my writing career where I let negative self-talk whisper to me that my books don't resonate with the market, that a big push on release was not for me. This is actually my default position, even if it doesn't seem like it from the outside.

So it's complicated, and cumulative, and progressive, and the more we talk about the layers in a publishing career the better. :)

Oh, and finally: this is fiercely individual. Some people are driven towards outlier success, and that's beautiful. Others are worker bees who like to just do the thing, over and over again. And some are dreamers who will get there when they're good & ready. Comparison is tricky.