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Back of the envelope calculation of the risk associated with this "tourist experiment" shows that it completely contradicts COVID vision of President @GotabayaR . Apologies for the long thread.
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COVID-19 infection rates in Ukraine are v. similar to UK. Reported rate is lower in Ukraine, but testing levels are very low in Ukraine - 1/10 that in UK, with 1/3 of tests being positive. A smaller discrepancy in mortality rates is consistent with this.
COVID-19 infection rates in Ukraine are v. similar to UK. Reported rate is lower in Ukraine, but testing levels are very low in Ukraine - 1/10 that in UK, with 1/3 of tests being positive. A smaller discrepancy in mortality rates is consistent with this.
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According to recent official surveys, ~1% of UK population is infected with COVID-19 on any given day. So reasonable guesstimate that 1% of the population of Ukraine is currently infected.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18december2020
According to recent official surveys, ~1% of UK population is infected with COVID-19 on any given day. So reasonable guesstimate that 1% of the population of Ukraine is currently infected.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18december2020
175 tourists arrived Monday, so I expected 1-5 or 1% on average to be infected. Detecting 3 during arrival testing (=1.7%) is entirely consistent with this. If anything 3 is worse than expectation, so risk might be higher.
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Lots of modeling done on combining testing with shorter quarantine. If I use airline industry research (presume this is biased downwards) 1-2% of infected cases will get thru 2 PCR tests+shorter quarantine. Other UK govt research suggests higher numbers, but let's ignore it.
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"Tourist Experiment" targets 300 tourists/day = 9000/month.
If 1% infected ==> ~90 infected cases.
If 1-2% of these remain undetected ==> 1-2 infected cases/month will get thru.
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If 1% infected ==> ~90 infected cases.
If 1-2% of these remain undetected ==> 1-2 infected cases/month will get thru.
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Many cases don't infect anyone else, but it needs only one superspreader event to cause a new Brandix disaster. Unfortunately, much more likely with tourists who dine out, travel around, etc.
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BOTTOM LINES
(1) 1-2 cases/mth getting thru is not compatible with "Preventing outbreaks", which is COVID vision of @GotabayaR. Only a matter of time before bad things happen.
(2) Tourism can only work with COVID eliminating countries like Australia or China, NOT Ukraine.
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(1) 1-2 cases/mth getting thru is not compatible with "Preventing outbreaks", which is COVID vision of @GotabayaR. Only a matter of time before bad things happen.
(2) Tourism can only work with COVID eliminating countries like Australia or China, NOT Ukraine.
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