Read on Twitter
Also, Darvish missed almost all of 2018 and three of his best four full seasons were in 2012, 2013 and 2014. There's also that... https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1344279108025544704
I know I drone on about this stuff, but picking a narrative and then ignoring the clear counter argument just to push a story that will be well received is the current standard from the top baseball media sites to the smaller shops with large readerships.
This is an extension of the Twitter approach to discourse. Initial reaction from title and then 280 words summary that will get lots of likes and retweets is 90% of what many analysts/writers shoot for today. The data no longer matters. Nuanced analysis no longer matters.
There are legit issues raised in the article, but I'm not sure how you can frame it the way Jeff did and feel like you've given this issue an honest engagement and presentation for your readers.
As an aside, it also matters that the Padres were embraced last year as a super fun club (they were fun, no question) and folks are geeked to have a reason to push their storyline even harder in 2021. If the Reds traded for Darvish and Snell there would be more critical articles.
And, to be clear, I'm not even talking about "warning, gory math below" level of nuance. I'm just talking about mentioning in your article that the narrative you've constructed isn't bulletproof and there is actual evidence that your narrative may not be the dominant one at play!
That's a big part of the issue with this article, too. It takes an old trope (Rays trade everyone once they start to make seven figures), wraps it in fan sentimentality, then hand waves the counter argument away. https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/12/28/blake-snell-trade-tampa-bay-rays
This is weird in that it basically says the Rays may be doing all the right things, but we still don't have to like how they operate. Okay, sure. But maybe offer up what the nexus should be between "good baseball minds" and "things we can root for" (hint, it's likely spending $).
But, even if you spend money, trade prospects for established talent, pay out the nose to re-sign that established talent to a huge deal, and spend in free agency, all it takes is a year and a half of *not* doing that and you are all that is wrong with baseball (See RedSox, BOS).