𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗲𝘀

Has the #BCFC defense gotten worse since the start of the season?

Using various different metrics available lets take a look at the first 11 games of the season compared to the most recent 11 games

𝗚𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱

1st 11 games - 11

2nd 11 games - 16

Looking purely at goals, its clear to see Blues have regressed, shipping 0.45 more goals per game in the second half of the season so far

𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘁𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱

1st 11 games - 12.09 shots p90

2nd 11 games - 10.09 shots p90

Interestingly, Blues have limited their opponents to an average of 2 shots LESS per game in the most recent 11 games

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀

Surely conceding more goals recently but allowing less shots, must mean allowing higher quality chances right?

Well, sort of. Lets have a look at everyones favorite metric, expected goals or more specifically, non-penalty expected goals (NPxG)

𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗚𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀

1st 11 games - 1.32 NPxG

2nd 11 games - 1.26 NPxG

So removing the penalties Blues have conceded so far this season from the xG numbers, they conceded on average, higher quality chances during the first 11 games

𝗣𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀

1st 11 games - 2/2

2nd 11 games - 3/5

Penalties shouldn't be ignored completely. Blues have conceded 7 penalties this season, 5 in the last 11 games

This increases the avergae xG during this period to 1.61 against 1.46 in the first 11 games

𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀

A common theme in the most recent games. As well as conceding more than double the amount of penalties in the last 11 games, more individual errors have occurred

Difficult to mitigate against those, but worrying there has been an increase in recent games