Really important news out of UK
Important for UK and the world
But I have mixed feelings about the science here
So what's the news?
UK MHRA (their FDA) has authorized the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine
Why such a big deal & why am I conflicted?
Thread https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator
Important for UK and the world
But I have mixed feelings about the science here
So what's the news?
UK MHRA (their FDA) has authorized the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine
Why such a big deal & why am I conflicted?
Thread https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator
First, the data
UK regulators suggesting that the data they evaluated suggests vaccine has 70.4% efficacy
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca#clinical-particulars
With zero hospitalizations & zero severe disease in vaccine arm
So that’s good
But not as good as Moderna or Pfizer vaccines (in efficacy)
UK regulators suggesting that the data they evaluated suggests vaccine has 70.4% efficacy
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca#clinical-particulars
With zero hospitalizations & zero severe disease in vaccine arm
So that’s good
But not as good as Moderna or Pfizer vaccines (in efficacy)
So why is it such a big deal?
1st, UK will start vaccinating people next week at large scale
2nd, India, other countries will likely now approve this vaccine
And India likely has tens of millions (if not more) doses ready to go
3/n
1st, UK will start vaccinating people next week at large scale
2nd, India, other countries will likely now approve this vaccine
And India likely has tens of millions (if not more) doses ready to go
3/n
This is all in the context of other vaccines rolling out in other countries
China’s Sinopharm vax (79% efficacy?) and Russia’s Sputnik V are going to roll out in lots of countries over next month
So we'll see large numbers of people around the world getting vaccinated
4/n
China’s Sinopharm vax (79% efficacy?) and Russia’s Sputnik V are going to roll out in lots of countries over next month
So we'll see large numbers of people around the world getting vaccinated
4/n
So what about the US?
There’s a new trial happening here for AZ vaccine
We’ll have more data in late January, possible authorization in February and roll-out after that
Until then, we’ll plod along getting tiny fractions of our population vaccinated
5/n
There’s a new trial happening here for AZ vaccine
We’ll have more data in late January, possible authorization in February and roll-out after that
Until then, we’ll plod along getting tiny fractions of our population vaccinated
5/n
Now what’s the mixed set of feelings here?
The data on AZ clearly not as strong (yet) as Pfizer and Moderna which have efficacy around 95%
But 70% efficacy not bad
Actually what I had expected from the best vaccines a few months ago
6/n
The data on AZ clearly not as strong (yet) as Pfizer and Moderna which have efficacy around 95%
But 70% efficacy not bad
Actually what I had expected from the best vaccines a few months ago
6/n
And UK would argue –a 70% vaccine is a lot better than no vaccine at all
But there are still other important caveats
AZ vaccine had too few people over 65 to see efficacy or safety
And the safety data that MHRA reports looks good but still sorting out some details
7/9
But there are still other important caveats
AZ vaccine had too few people over 65 to see efficacy or safety
And the safety data that MHRA reports looks good but still sorting out some details
7/9
So would I recommend FDA authorize AZ vax in US based on these data?
Probably not
We need more data on people >r 65 (high risk group)
We need to understand dosing and dosing intervals better
BUT
We also have a fire raging across US with 3700 dying just yesterday
8/9
Probably not
We need more data on people >r 65 (high risk group)
We need to understand dosing and dosing intervals better
BUT
We also have a fire raging across US with 3700 dying just yesterday
8/9
Ox/AZ vaccine appears to be safe, effective
But data not as solid (yet) as Moderna/Pfizer
Of course, we could actually get the 40M doses of the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines we have sitting in freezers out to the American people
But that requires a competent federal government
Fin
But data not as solid (yet) as Moderna/Pfizer
Of course, we could actually get the 40M doses of the Moderna/Pfizer vaccines we have sitting in freezers out to the American people
But that requires a competent federal government
Fin