My Uranium bull thesis v. 2.0 thread

1) When you look at #uranium equities appreciation during December 2020 it seems that the uranium bull market v. 2.0 has just started. Twitter confidence strongly suggests so too. The question is, will it be another 2004-2007 bull run?

2) During 2020 we have seen massive supply destruction due to COVID-19 including Cigar Lake being shut down twice and Kazatomprom shutdown during the spring/summer.

3) My guess is that we have still not seen the last chapter of the impact into 2021. Deficit will be massive and devastating for utilities just when they need to start restocking.

4) We have also seen BHP scrapping its massive Olympic Dam expansion and lately 3 Ukraine mines being suspended due to insolvency. Just yesterday, China’s CGN announced their buying of 49% interest in 2 big uranium mines from Kazatomprom taking out 3.5 mibs/year from the market.

5) In January 2021, Australia's Ranger mine will close permanently and Niger’s COMINAK mine will close in March. Both mines will close due to ore depletion after decades of mining taking out another 6 mibs/year.

6) The million $ question is, how significant will all this supply destruction affect uranium pricing and how fast and high will it go?

7) If we look back to 2004-2007, it took 4 years to create this massive uranium bull market. Prices went from 10 to 137 $/ib and never looked back before the Fukushima accident in 2011.

8) Hedge funds, energy funds, resource funds & high-net-worth individuals bought up the equities and started hoarding yellow cake leaving utilities chasing inventory. As a consequence, both spot and LT prices went into the stratosphere.

9) A brilliant approach if you want to make big money fast. All this was done in an oversupplied market based on fear. There was no structural deficit.

10) This time around we have a massive uranium deficit and no new planned mines coming online. And C/M mines won’t be enough to support balanced production and supplying restocking of utility inventories.

11) My guess is that utilities will be stuck empty handed again crying for more uranium mines to come online.

12) Back in March 2020, we saw a general 35% stock market crash within weeks and a very fast recovery. Much faster than in 2007/2008 during the great financial crisis. Computers have taken over most stock buying/selling, hence much quicker and profound impact.

13) My take is, could it be, that massive buying of uranium equities and yellow cake this time around will go much faster than in 2004-2007? Could we see an accelerated Uranium bull thesis playing out in just 2021-2023?

14) We have massive LT rolling off, massive production deficit, no new production coming online, China scooping up all cheap uranium they can get their hands on, 56 new reactors being build, Wall Street buying up yellow cake amplifying deficit fears,

15) high-net-worth individuals who want to repeat the last bull run, online access to 24/7 buying by Robinhood traders and incredible amounts of money just waiting for the next exploding area for investment. Online news will amplify the effect.

16) The fundamentals, to me, are much stronger than the previous bull market. I think that the 2021-2023 uranium bull will be mind-blowing and prices will go to new heights.

17) What is your take and time horizon on the next uranium bull? Will it be a run or just steady growth?