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A thread on how I think the CV19-crisis ends (atleast in the UK but applicable to most of the West):
tl;dr UK Gov knows it fucked up and has been looking for an out for months, they've found it with the vaccine but not because it actually helps. 1/17
tl;dr UK Gov knows it fucked up and has been looking for an out for months, they've found it with the vaccine but not because it actually helps. 1/17
CV19 has been endemic in Britain since June. Many ways of showing this I think the clearest is the collapse in excess deaths across a multitude of diseases. In Spring excess deaths were far above the average yet have completely been in-line with the 5year average since June. 2/17
So the question is where are these CV19 deaths coming from? The answer is faulty PCR testing, which is the primary factor here. Without the testing being so lousy you dont get sky high infection rates in an asymptomatic population or misattributed deaths as we’re seeing now. 3/17
The UK Gov knows this and has done for months but have been trapped within their own policy from earlier in the year. A few weeks ago the NHS said internally they were moving towards Lateral Flow tests (LFT) for staff. You don’t do that if you think PCR is solid. 4/17
The LFT are far more accurate and not as error-prone as PCR. They are also quicker and cheaper. Problem for UK Gov is how do you role out a test you know will show up your massive mistake. Tories were looking for an “out” and they have it: vaccines. 5/17
Here’s the important thing about the vaccines right now: They do not stop transmission. Even if you have 100% uptake all you are doing is limiting the worst symptoms (not bad in of itself for certain at-risk groups). So UK Gov can’t use the vaccine as an out right? Wrong. 6/17
UK Gov is well aware that the vaccine won’t drop the “positive case” numbers because of the PCR testing but they need it to to save face. Don’t forget Boris was the 1st world leader to approve a vaccine, it’s clearly the centre of their volte-face. So here’s the plan: 7/17
Roll-out the vaccine, target it at the most vulnerable (where it will actually do some good). Concurrently switch the community asymptomatic testing away from PCR to LFT. Do it slowly by region by ramping down the Tiers (higher Tiers get more testing as it stands). 8/17
Proclaim that this is all the vaccine’s doing. Boris reminds everyone he had full faith in Britain and getting the vaccine to us first (Tories do love their narratives). “Positive cases” from PCR in hospitals will naturally tail off at the end of flu season in Mar. 9/17
By May Johnson announces that CV19 in Britain is over, they will continue to monitor it but most of the country moves to Tier 1. All thanks to Boris, the Tories and the vaccine. In reality all that changed was the testing but most of the country will be none the wiser. 10/17
This way the Government also avoids the stickly situation of mandating the vaccine. By conflating it with falling “positive cases” it promotes others, in less at-risk groups (and who really shouldn’t take it), to go and take it. So Pfizer will be happy. 11/17
I could just be chatting shit, but between the NHS switching to LFT as well as their continuing use by the Army, I have to feel that the Gov knows what’s up with the PCR tests. Importantly it’s worth considering what will happen if they don’t do this. 12/17
This is all anecdotal but this Christmas lockdown has really upset a lot of people. People I know who were all onboard with it have now started to talk about how stupid it all is. You can only hide the fact that no one is actually dying of CV19 anymore for so long. 13/17
Imagine what it will be like if we get to Summer next year with the Gov still maintaining its PCR testing regime (even with a successful nationwide vaccine rollout). Deaths from respiratory illnesses crater in the Summer, so they can’t misattribute those deaths to CV19. 14/17
You’ll have sky high infection rates, higher than the 2020 peak, and literally no one even getting admitted to an ICU nevermind dying of CV19. How long could the Gov realistically justify restrictions if this was the case. It’d be too farcical even for this Government. 15/17
By moving off PCR to Lat Flow testing throughout late-Winter/Early-Spring and assigning this drop in “positive cases” to the vaccine the Gov avoids this situation. Spin the narrative that only the Tories could deliver such a state of affairs and you have the perfect spin. 16/17
So keep an eye on the testing going into the New Year. If they move the community testing to Lateral Flow it’ll be the biggest indicator that everything will start to ramp down. Just my theory (or maybe one giant cope because I’m fucking fed up of being locked down). Fin. 17/17
Addendum: Here’s an idea of the difference PCR to Lat Flow will make. Out of 20,000 tests done in a week with Lateral Flow only 66 tested positive (0.30%). This is actually lower than the laughably low official False Positive Rate for PCR quoted by the UK Gov (0.8%). 18/17
Here’s the source for the 0.8% FPR for PCR so you know I’m not pulling it out of my arse. What’s funny is I’ve seen some estimates that it could be about as high as 4-5% by now. Which is around the average of PCR tests that report a “positive”. https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1306916494773755910 20/17
