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Did the new SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage spread during the English national lockdown? Rising numbers and estimated higher R value suggest so. Together with our colleagues from COG-UK we took a closer look. >> https://virological.org/t/lineage-specific-growth-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-during-the-english-national-lockdown/575
Fitting lineage-agnostic daily PCR test and viral genome data from COG-UK to 382 local authorities we find evidence that B.1.1.7 has spread in a staggering 200/246 of affected LTLAs during the November lockdown (R>1) while at the same time other lineages contracted (R<1). >>
The evidence is therefore overwhelming that B.1.1.7 was repeatedly capable to proliferate under lockdown measures sufficient to suppress other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. B.1.1.7 spread was not an isolated event of general failure of viral containment (both R>1). >>
Control of B.1.1.7 will therefore require stricter measures than applied during the November lockdown as noted and modelled by others. >> https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
As it emerges that B.1.1.7 has already spread to many other countries, everything possible should be done to contain it in its roots. Failure to stop this variant now will mean long and strict lockdowns one or two months later otherwise. >> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/us-first-case-new-uk-covid-variant
Many thanks to @harald_voeh, @jcbarret, @imartincorena @CovidGenomicsUK and many other colleagues from @sangerinstitute and @emblebi for their hard work over the last weeks and months.
